057
ACUS03 KWNS 160730
SWODY3
SPC AC 160729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday.

...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic..
A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley
through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward
through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate
southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching
from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas
early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over
time.

A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning,
although its location varies considerably within the guidance.
Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the
Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in
the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of
the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this
line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with
some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently
expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in
the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak
surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should
be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable
of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail.

...Upper Midwest...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from
Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper
Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward
through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated
thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two
could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently
expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2024

$$