209
FXUS64 KBMX 050837
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Skies are currently mostly clear across Central Alabama with no
echoes on radar. An upper level southern stream impulse over TX/OK
will track eastward today. Not expecting any rain across Central
Alabama this morning, but scattered storms will likely develop over
west Alabama by mid afternoon.  Modest surface based CAPE around
1500 J/kg expected across west Alabama this afternoon, with 0-6km
bulk shear values less than 30 kts, so storms likely stay below
severe limits. Model consensus is for the convective activity to
push northeast along and north of the I-20 corridor overnight, but
there are significant differences in areal coverage of storms. Will
continue likely rain chances along and north of I-20 overnight, but
as with previous systems, the coverage seems to wane once it hits
the Alabama state line. This system will move out of north Alabama
before sunrise Monday. Mid level subsidence on Monday will keep a
lid of diurnal convection, and kept rain chances on the low end.
Above normal temperatures the next few days with highs in the middle
to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place during the coming
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will run each day through
early Friday morning, as a late season cold front sweeps through
Central Alabama. Convection across the northwestern counties Tuesday
and Wednesday may be strong and will need to be monitored for any
isolated severe potential in the form of damaging wind and hail.

Meanwhile, strong southerly surface flow will bring some of the
warmest days so far this year. Winds may gust as high as 15-20 mph
at times Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. High temperatures will
soar into the upper 80s, perhaps even lows 90s across the southern
counties, Tuesday through Thursday.

We are beginning to monitor the Thursday evening timeframe for the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with an MCS-
like setup moving west to east across the area. This, in advance of
the aforementioned cold front, may pose a damaging wind and hail
threat, owing to fairly steep lapse rates around 7.5 C/km and bulk
shear values of 50-55 kts. However, the better forcing will be
removed to the north of Alabama, so will need to further evaluate
the potential over the next few forecast cycles.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Outside convective activity, VFR conds will prevail. Patchy fog
thru 13Z may reduce vsbys to 3-5 miles. Tstms will increase over
west Alabama between 21Z and 00Z, spreading eastward along and
north of the I-20 corridor during the evening hours, possibly
impacting all northern TAF sites.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are possible today, Monday, and
Tuesday. Rain amounts could be locally heavy where thunderstorms
track, on the order of around one inch. With increasing moisture,
minimum RH values will be above 40-45 percent each afternoon. 20-
foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to
southwest, though gusts to around 20 mph will be possible at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  65  85  65 /  20  60  30  30
Anniston    87  66  85  66 /  20  50  20  20
Birmingham  87  68  85  68 /  30  60  20  20
Tuscaloosa  87  68  86  68 /  50  60  20  20
Calera      86  67  84  67 /  30  60  20  20
Auburn      85  68  84  67 /  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  88  68  88  67 /  20  40  20  10
Troy        88  66  88  67 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58/rose
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...58/rose