482
FXUS63 KDDC 201142
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Exceptionally pleasant latter half of the week

- Rain chances (60-90%) for SW Kansas tomorrow night into Thursday
morning

- Warming back up into the 80s next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a
positively tilted low-pressure tough stretching down into southern
Nevada. Close to the surface, weak low pressure has built up over
the Great Plains portion of the CONUS. This evening will continue to
see winds ease and temperatures drop via radiative cooling.

Cloud cover building tomorrow afternoon will keep highs from getting
too warm with the majority of SW Kansas staying in the 60s for a
maximum temperatures. The significant focus of the forecast cycle
comes tomorrow night will widespread precipitation expected. Models
and ensembles continue to prog subtle moisture advection up into
western Kansas. Very marginal chances begin via ensembles after
noon. The chances uptick significantly after sunset with scattered
showers descending southeastwardly. Forecast soundings have
precipitable water values between 0.5-1". Despite CAMs holding a
more scattered precipitation regime, ensembles keep amounts from 0.1-
0.25" with a maxima near 0.5 inch around Garden City. Instability is
expected to be minimal to start with only benign showers forecast
initially. Ensembles are very optimistic with rainfall chances
through the event at or above 90% for the entire CWA, although it
appears possible that some areas may only see amounts near a trace.
While most of the first round of precipitation is expected to occur
before noon Thursday, recent CAM runs have a convective signal near
the Colorado border and weakening as it moves eastward into the
evening potentially lasting into Friday. Again with the cloudiness
and rain, highs again are forecast in the 60s across SW Kansas
Thursday.

Highs begin warming up on Friday with highs in the 70s, and into the
80s by Sunday. The start of next week will continue the warmer trend
in the 80s. The forecast period has occasional possibilities for
more precipitation, but the chances and agreement is low enough to
where it is too uncertain to make declarations. However, in the
wetter calmer pattern, minimum relative humidities maintain above
20% to quell most fire weather risk. Other than non-severe
precipitation, little in the extended period is noteworthy.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A light and variable wind will gradually become southeasterly
through the day. The sustained southeast wind will bring in more
moisture in the low levels, and this will foster development of
showers and thunderstorms, especially later on this evening. We
have included a PROB30 group for thunderstorms this evening as a
result. VFR flight category much of this period will also
gradually transition toward MVFR and IFR in low ceiling toward
the end of this TAF period (early Thursday morning).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Umscheid