706
FXUS63 KICT 131055
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler today with summer-like temperatures for
  Thursday through the weekend.

- On and off storm chances will return for Wednesday night
  through the weekend, but confidence in timing and overall
  coverage is low.

- Pattern change looks to arrive for early next week with near
  normal temperatures possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The ridge over the western CONUS continues to build as the short
wave trough over the Upper Midwest shifts over the Northeast. At the
surface, a weak low pressure is situated over the Great Lakes with
an associated cold front draped across the Mississippi Valley and
over to the Panhandles region. High pressure is settling over the
Central Plains from the north. As this feature shifts further south,
winds today will turn from the northeast to southerly, increasing
across our Central and South-central Kansas counties to between 15-
20 mph. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly cooler behind
the "cold" front, though still 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs
reaching into the lower to middle 80s.

Winds will continue to increase across the forecast area through the
overnight hours due to the strengthening pressure gradient between
the high pressure to the southeast and a strengthening low pressure
ahead of the next system over the Northern Rockies. Look for
southerly winds across the area overnight to reach between 15-25 mph
with gusts in Central Kansas approaching 30 mph. We may be able to
see a few showers/storms in eastern Kansas very late tonight as
moisture increases ahead of the next system with strong southerly
flow. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.
Temperatures tonight will remain mild under WAA with lows only
dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A mid/upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of the
country on Thursday that will send a weak boundary towards KS on
Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, widespread 90 degree temperatures
are anticipated under the ridge with strong southerly winds.
Sustained winds between 20-30 mph are expected with gusts up to 35
mph. As the frontal boundary interacts with around 2000 J/kg CAPE
late Thursday afternoon/evening, it could lead to some isolated
storm chances for central into eastern Kansas. With shear values in
the 30-40 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and
isolated strong wind gusts could be possible with the strongest
storms.

By Friday, we will be positioned under zonal flow, but with above
normal heights. Very warm temperatures will be able to continue for
the next few days, topping out in the 80s and 90s each afternoon
through the weekend. For Saturday/Saturday night, significant low-
level moisture will be in place over the region along with ample
instability. A dryline across central Kansas may allow for a few
scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon and
increase in coverage and progress eastward with a strengthening LLJ.
Due to weak overall dynamics, confidence in widespread storm
development is low. A deep trough looks to move over the Rockies on
Sunday with an associated surface low and cold front sweeping over
the Plains Sunday night/Monday. Additional storm development is
possible again late Sunday with the approach of this next frontal
boundary and dryline. Behind Sunday`s system, temperatures for early
next week look to dip closer to normal with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will
turn south-easterly and increase this morning above 10 knots.
Look for central KS sites to see gusts up to 20 kts this
afternoon. Winds will increase further between 06-09Z with
sustained winds between 12-17 knots and gusts over 25 kts for
RSL and GBD. Isolated shower/storm chances exist for CNU towards
the very end of the period, but confidence in coverage and
intensity is still low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Very high fire danger remains likely for Thursday and Sunday
afternoons across portions of Central and South-central Kansas.

Strong southerly winds are expected both Thursday and Sunday
afternoons with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and wind
gusts reaching between 35-40 mph. These gusty winds along with
well above normal temperatures in the 90s and RH values in the
15-25% range will lead to Very High grassland fire danger.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...AMD