938
FXUS62 KILM 171114
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
614 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation 12Z TAF discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above to well above normal temps for the Wed thru Sat time
period, possibly reaching record levels away from the immediate
coast Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above to well above normal temps for the Wed thru
Sat time period, possibly reaching record levels away from the
immediate coast Fri.

Upper ridging to extend across the SE States from the Gulf
during the Wed into Sat time period. Models keep it consistently
amplified enough or not enough, depends how one looks at it.
The end result is that Southeast NC and Northeast SC to remain
south of where several cold fronts stall before lifting back to
the north as warm fronts. This keeps the FA in the warm sector
Wed into Sat with SW-WSW flow dominating, except winds may back
to the SSW-S each aftn/evening nearshore as an active but pinned
sea breeze will occur. Daily max temps will run into the 70s
except possibly approaching 80 Fri especially if there is a less
potential for pcpn and widespread cloudiness. The immediate
coast will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than their inland
comrades due to a pinned sea breeze. Bare in mind normal highs
run in the low 60s, so we`re looking at 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, possibly up to 20 degrees Fri! Daily lows will run in
the mid to upper 50s during this period, with normal lows in the
upper 30s. Unfortunately, what cloud put a damper to these
above normal readings is if any of these fronts drop further
south before stalling, ie partially across SE NC and/or NE SC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through 12z Wednesday morning. Low stratus
across the coastal Cape Fear region, including over KILM, will
continue to dissipate with clear skies by 13-14z. Mostly clear
skies into tonight with a few high clouds. Light winds for this
TAF period, with 4-7 kt southerly winds this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through mid-
week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure currently overhead will shift
offshore later today. This will turn light northeasterly winds
over the waters this morning to southerly by tonight. Seas 2-3
ft today and tonight, with a few 4 footers in the outer coastal
waters this morning, mix of SE swell and an incoming ENE long
period swell that arrives today.

Wednesday through Saturday night...
Surface high pressure to slide offshore from the SE States and
park well offshore by late Wed. During the same time, the sfc
pg will tighten across the waters as a cold front drops to the
SSE before stalling just north of the waters as it becomes
oriented parallel with the flow aloft given the low amplitude
ridging aloft. Decent SW winds 15 to 20 kt, few gusts to 25 kt,
Wed into Wed nite b4 dropping off as the sfc pg relaxes some
later Wed nite thru Thu given the stalled front in the
vicinity. The front returns back to north as a warm front late
Thu with the sfc pg re-tightening Thu night into Fri. SW winds
to increase back to 15 to 20 kt with few gusts to 25 kt. Have
kept the 25 kt gusts infrequent given the SSTs in the 40s,
difficult to frequently mix down this warm air over the cool
shelf waters. For Fri night into Sat, another cold front drops
to the area and stalls in the vicinity. The sfc pg relaxes again
Sat thru Sat night with SW winds diminishing. Cold front poised
to move across the waters later Sat night as the upper ridging
breaks down as a southern stream upper s/w trof hooks up with a
northern stream s/w trof allowing for a wave of low pressure to
develop along the cold front. Seas will be governed by short
period wind driven waves during increased SW winds. When those
SW winds abate, look for a 10+ second period ENE-E swell to
dominate. Have included patchy sea fog later Wed thru Fri. Given
upper 50s to around 60 sfc dewpoints advecting across shelf
waters where SSTs are in the 45 to 50 range. SW- WSW Wind
directions will likely keep the sea fog to a minimum, unless
there`s a more southerly direction at some point at which the
immediate coast may observe some onshore sea fog movement.

&&

.CLIMATE...
     Record highs for 2/20/2026...
Wilmington NC      - KILM (81 last set in 1991)
Lumberton NC       - KLBT (80 last set in 2018)
N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949)
Florence SC        - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...DCH
DISCUSSION...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/VAO