Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 222347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
747 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 419 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather to region tonight,
along with light north winds and cold overnight lows in the mid
20s. This ridge will move off to the east Friday and Friday night
as a storm system takes shape across the Central Plains. This
system is expected to bring several inches of snow accumulation
across portions of northern and central Indiana to southwest Ohio
late Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations are expected
roughly along and south of a line from Winamac Indiana to Portland
Indiana, with the greatest snow accumulations expected across
White and Cass counties in northern Indiana. Dry weather will
return for Saturday night through the remainder of the weekend
before rain chances increase again Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures will moderate back into the lower to mid 50s by


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Minimal changes made with respect to near/short term. Only minor
thermal moderation is expected into Friday amid short duration
height building across western portion of Upper Great Lakes in
advance of progressive shortwave ejection within base of northeast
Pacific vortex base ejection.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Again two systems noteworthy. Slight southward shunt of late Fri
night/Saturday system with respect to sharp moisture/i300k upglide
demarcation. Will continue present winter storm watch with
eventual/presumptuous shift to eventual winter wx advisory for far
southwest/southern Indiana portion CWA. Confidence levels preclude
any variance from areal extent of watch at this time. Mix farther
north. Lesser isentropic moisture availability/lower level easterly
flow on fringe and eventual mix/road temp melting should greatly
lower potential impact through northern fringe.

Late weekend deep southwesterly flow through baja into midwest to
promote significant moisture return, followed by rich GOMEX feed
addition Mon/Tue for high pop/high confidence in rain event late
Monday night into Tuesday. However, present HWO mention of locally
heavy rainfall remains sufficient at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions to persist this period as low level anticyclone
remains in control across northern Indiana. Tight mid level
thermal packing across Illinois will support continued mid cloud
development, but primarily remaining to the west across eastern
Illinois. Northwest winds around 10 knots to begin the period will
become light northerly this evening 5 knots or less, with diurnal
mixing supporting northwest winds around 10 knots once again for


IN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     afternoon for INZ013-020-022-023-032>034.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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