679
FXUS66 KLOX 221607
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
907 AM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...22/853 AM.

Mostly clear skies with warming temperatures will occur today
through Friday. Look for gusty northwest winds this afternoon and
evening. A weak storm with light rain is possible sometime this
weekend and again the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...22/906 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes in the forecast this morning. Lots of sunshine but
temperatures generally 2-4 degrees below normal. Main thing today
is the expectation of gusty westerly winds developing by this
afternoon following yesterday`s storm. Strongest winds will be in
the mountains and coastal areas from Santa Barbara to Malibu and
the adjacent coastal waters. Gusts to 35 mph possible in those
areas through early evening. Chilly temps overnight with lows
mostly in the 40s.

***From Previous Discussion***

The low pressure system that brought rain to the area ydy is
pulling out of the state to the NE and brisk westerly flow is
setting up over Srn CA. Skies will be mostly clear today save for
some mountain clouds. The westerly winds aloft will help drive
gusty winds in the Antelope Vly this afternoon and evening as well
as bringing stronger than normal westerly sea breezes to the
coastal areas. Most areas will see a few degrees of warming today
due to the extra sunshine. The Central Coast will be the exception
where the enhanced sea breeze will bring a few degrees of
cooling.

Overnight the flow will switch to a more northerly direction and
there will be gusty north winds through the I-5 corridor and the
SBA south coast. Right now it looks like these gusts will come in
just under advisory levels.

Thursday will start off with some weak offshore winds enough to
chase away any threat of low clouds, but not strong enough to
warrant any advisories. Rising hgts, late April sunshine and weak
offshore flow will allow combine to bring 3 to 6 degrees of
warming to the entire area. Most csts and vlys will see highs in
the 70s with a smattering of 80 degree readings in the warmest
vlys. Most cst/vly locations will end up a few degrees north of
normal.

Weak troffing and a return to onshore flow will bring some coastal
low clouds back to the area on Friday morning. Otherwise, it will
be a partly cloudy day as some high clouds drift in from the west.
The switch to onshore flow will knock 2 to 4 degrees off of the
temps across the csts/vlys. The interior, however, will continue
to warm.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/306 AM.

A very weak system will pass through the center of the state on
Saturday. It does not have much in the way of dynamics or
moisture and will only bring a slight chc of rain with the best
chc over the mtns. Even if it does rain it does not look capable
of producing anything more than a tenth of an inch of rain. It
will bring plenty of clouds and cooler temps. Max temps should
cool 4 to 8 degrees and highs across the csts/vlys will only be in
the 60s.

Weak ridging will arrive on Sunday and will bring dry conditions,
clearing skies and 1 to 3 degrees of warming.

Mdl consensus begins to fall off on Monday. The general consensus
is that there will be a trof to the north of the area and fairly
strong SW flow over Srn CA. The GFS is most aggressive with the
trof and SW flow and some its ensembles are wet. Still not enough
to include rain in the fcst, but still a greater than zero chc.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid and high clouds
stream in with the SW flow. Warm air advection from the SW flow
will bring 1 or 2 degrees of warming despite the increased cloud
cover.

Not the best mdl agreement on Tuesday, although if you throw out
the GFS it is much better. All mdls show an upper low in the
general vcnty of Srn CA. All mdls save for the GFS are dry
(including the AI-GFS) but quite a few GFS ensemble members are
wet and this is enough to force some slight chc pops into the
Tuesday forecast. Better confidence that it will be a mostly
cloudy day with max temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1523Z.

At 1530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor marine inversion.

Overall...high confidence in 18Z TAF package for most sites. Only
exceptions will be KPRB and KSMX. At KPRB, there is a 40% chance
that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop overnight. At KSMX,
there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions in the 09Z-16Z time
frame.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. No significant easterly wind
component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...22/823 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. For
today, northwest winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels and remain at SCA levels through Friday evening.
Additionally, there is a 20% chance of GALE force winds tonight,
south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, winds and
seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Friday, SCA level northwest winds
can be expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For
Saturday and Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For today, high confidence in
westerly winds increasing to SCA levels across all of the southern
Inner Waters. For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday and Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across all
of the southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW/Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox