Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
550 FXUS64 KFWD 121054 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 554 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 107 can be expected. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35 this afternoon. - Above-average temperatures will continue into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 In the wake of the pair of shortwave troughs that transited the region Thursday and Friday, subtropical ridging is once again expected to build in this weekend. While associated subsidence will act to hinder precipitation chances throughout the period, 10% PoPs have been introduced east of I-35 for this afternoon as subtle ascent downstream of an embedded shortwave progresses southeast across the ArkLaTex. Elsewhere, a few of the 00z CAMs are hinting at isolated thundershowers developing in Central Texas, likely suggestive of sporadic convective temperature breaching. Confidence is too low to include in the official forecast at this time. Temperatures will climb in accordance with the increasing heights aloft, ranging from the upper 90s across the Brazos Valley/extreme Northeast Texas to the lower 100s elsewhere. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of North and Central Texas for the day on Saturday to account for heat indices of up to 107. Local ambient air temperatures will be maximized generally west of I-35 and north of I-20, however southwesterly downslope flow in response to lee cyclogenesis across the panhandle will act to reduce surface dewpoint values with westward extent. Temperatures look to be a few degrees cooler for Sunday and Monday, with partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds prevailing. Dornsife && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Persistent mid level ridging is expected to continue through the latter half of the week resulting in continued above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances. The pattern over the Central and Northern Plains will become increasingly active through Friday. As it does, one or more cold fronts will sag south through the Plains gradually resulting in increasing showers and storms mainly to our north. While temperatures are likely to remain in the upper 90s through much of the week, there is still some indication that the ridging will begin to break down headed into next weekend. This should eventually bring temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms with an uptick in rain chances. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 IFR ceilings have developed within Balcones Escarpment topographic uplift near KACT this morning. Observations at the Temple and Waco- James airports are reporting a 600-1,000 ft cloud deck amidst continued cooling and southerly moisture advection. Opted to TEMPO IFR until 13Z, at which point diurnal insolation should alleviate ceiling concerns. Thereafter, VFR with southerly flow around 10 kts and a few diurnal cumulus of bases 6-8 kft are expected across all terminals for the day on Saturday. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35 and across Central Texas this afternoon. While direct impacts to any TAF sites appears unlikely, convective outflow and associated temporary wind shifts will be monitored should storms develop. Dornsife && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 75 99 75 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 102 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 81 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 100 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$