386
FXUS63 KPAH 132347
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
647 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warmth and elevated humidity levels will continue this
  afternoon.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  on Wednesday through Thursday morning. A few strong to severe
  storms cannot be ruled out.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will
  continue on Thursday, with the best chances along the I-64
  corridor.

- A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures Friday
  into next weekend, followed by another warmup early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Stout and expanding H5 ridging and surface high pressure over
the southeast CONUS continue to advect very warm temperatures
and elevated humidity levels into the region. Despite some mid-
level cloud cover, temperatures will approach or exceed record
levels this afternoon. Increasing dew point temperatures into
the 60s will yield peak heat index values around the middle to
upper 90s, which may cause some heat related impacts. SPS for
heat-related impacts remains in effect for the western half of
the region until 22z.

Tonight, convection will develop over the southern Great Plains
and Ozarks as a surface low develops and moves northeast through
the Midwest along a frontal boundary positioned north and west
of the area. Lingering convection will move through the region
Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Depending on how much
clearing we week, development is possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
if this occurred due to the presence of modest 0-6 km shear and
instability. Any strong storms that do develop would pose a
damaging wind risk. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the
entire forecast area for this potential.

Thursday may see a bit of a lull for areas south of I-64 as the
frontal boundary lifts north of the region. Clouds will keep
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, but dew point
temperatures will be very muggy by mid-October standards in the
lower to middle 70s. Thursday night into Friday morning, the
cold front will sweep through the region as a deep H5 ridge
moves through the northern tier of the CONUS. Cannot rule out a
strongly-forced segment of strong/gusty storms along the leading
edge of the front, especially along I-64, where moisture and
instability will be highest. SPC`s Day 3 outlook does have
another marginal risk that clips this area. Rainfall totals for
the Wednesday-Thursday period look pretty modest, generally
about 0.25-0.75".

Friday through next weekend will see much cooler conditions and
a return to dry weather. Gradient winds will be quiet gusty
(gusts up to 25-35 mph) on Friday following the frontal passage,
and this could lead to elevated fire danger for areas that miss
out on wetting rains in the next two days. Additionally, the
first widespread frosts of the season are possible Saturday
morning and especially Sunday morning. However, the cooldown
will be short-lived, as H5 ridging will increase over the region
early next week, and high temperatures will warm 5-10 degrees
above normal by next Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Winds become light as high clouds move in overnight. A band of
showers and thunderstorms moves across the region from northwest
to southeast during the morning to midday hours. Cigs lower to
MVFR with and following the storms. Reductions in vsby accompany
heavier rain. Winds shift from southwesterly towards
northwesterly through the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL