731
FXUS65 KTFX 160011
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
511 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Light mountain snow with isolated rain/snow showers at lower
   elevations continue through the rest of the day.

 - A storm system Tuesday will bring light to moderate mountain
   snow, light lower elevation snow, and gusty winds.

 - Colder temperatures and slightly more active weather continues
   after Tuesday through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...

No major changes to the going forecast. In general most of the
showers across the northern plains are turning out to be virga so
precipitation chances were lowered to focus on areas that had the
highest probability of precipitable water. Otherwise light
rain/snow showers will continue across central and southwest
Montana and along the Continental Divide through the rest of the
evening with no major travel impacts expected at this time.
-thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 431 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An upper level wave will continue to bring light mountain snow
along with isolated rain/snow showers at lower elevations through
the evening. Most impacts from snow will remain above pass level
with road temperatures sitting above freezing. However, any wet
pavements overnight are likely to refreeze and cause slick roads.

There will be a lull in precipitation on Monday before the next
system moves through. Increasing winds aloft will mix down breezy
to gusty winds across Southwest MT on Monday. A broad, deepening
trough from western British Columbia combining with a small wave
from the Great Basin region will bring a more active and colder
period to the region Tuesday through the week. The first, quick
hitting shortwave and low pressure system begins to move in late
Monday night/early Tuesday morning. This will bring a wave of
minor to moderate mountain snow, with light snow at lower
elevations through Tuesday evening. A mid and low level jet with
this system will bring gusty winds to Southwest MT and the plains,
which will bring blowing snow and visibility reduction concerns
with snow Tuesday.

There will be a brief lull in snow late Tuesday evening. Though
with the broad trough will making it`s way through there will be
additional instances of light to moderate snow Wednesday through
Friday. The Tuesday system is expected to pull in colder air from
Canada, and will bring near to below average temperatures through
at least Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow System Tuesday:

Uncertainty remains in how this system will progress once it
crosses east of the Continental Divide and into the North-Central
MT plains. Models have been variable in snow totals east of
Highway 89, with some solutions put a broad 2-4 inches of snow
across the plains or keeps the snow mainly confined to the Rocky
Mountain Front. This system is also fairly quick moving, which
adds uncertainty into snow accumulations. This quicker hitting
wave can keep snow rather limited across the plains. On the other
hand, models do show good mid level frontogenesis to enhance snow
rates along this wave. This makes having 2-4 inches along the
plains not an unreasonable solution as well. Another factor with
this system is the gusty winds resulting from the mid to low level
jet and pressure gradient developing as this low deepens. Models
do show decent chances for up to 40 to 50 mph brief wind gusts at
times in Southwest MT, Rocky Mountain Front, and parts of North-
Central MT Tuesday. This brings a concern for blowing/drifting
snow and visibility reductions with snow. Taking into account
where the best chances for minor impacts due to a few inches of
snow with travel impacts from the winds, a Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for the Rocky Mountain Front, down to the Gates of the
Mountains, and the Sweet Grass Hills region Tuesday. Confidence
lowers farther east if minor winter conditons develop. If models
keep trending for minor impacts along and east of I-15, then an
expansion may be needed down the road.

Better confidence for minor to moderate snow resides in the
mountains along the Continental Divide and Southwest MT. There`s a
30-40% chance for 5" of snow along Marias, Rogers, and Monida
Pass and a 70% chance for Raynolds and Targhee Pass. Gusty winds
will have the greatest impact on blowing snow and visibility
concerns in the Southwest MT mountains passes Tuesday morning.
Though the short window for gusty winds will likely keep impacts
only minor to moderate. -Wilson


&&

.AVIATION...
16/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions generally prevail for the TAF period, though some
low- VFR cloud ceilings and periods of breezy westerly winds may
occur in the vicinity of isolated showers through 16/03Z. There
will also be mountain obscuration through the overnight hours,
especially along the Continental Divide and over far southwest MT.
While steadier southerly winds continue at KEKS, variable surface
winds elsewhere also become more southerly late tonight into
Monday. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  32  57  29  35 /  10   0  20  90
CTB  23  51  20  25 /  10  10  20  90
HLN  28  54  29  38 /  20   0  30  90
BZN  27  54  30  40 /  30   0  30  80
WYS  18  41  22  30 /  20  20  90 100
DLN  26  51  31  39 /  10   0  60  60
HVR  26  54  28  36 /  10   0   0  80
LWT  28  52  29  39 /  20   0  10  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern
Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Northern High Plains-
Southern High Plains.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for East
Glacier Park Region-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest
Beaverhead County-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot
and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday
for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls