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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.


DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers continue across southeast Oklahoma into west-central
Arkansas this afternoon in advance of a frontal boundary across
northeast Oklahoma. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and in advance of this boundary as it sags further
to the south and east. Any thunderstorms that do develop will have
the potential to become strong to marginally severe with strong gusty
winds the main concern. Locally heavy rains will also be possible with
the strongest storms which could lead to flooding of low lying areas
especially across east-central Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Thursday. There is expected to be adequate
instability and deep layer shear that some of the storms could become strong to
severe with strong gusty winds the main concern. Locally heavy rain will also be
possible which could lead to flooding of low lying areas. Heat will also be an issue
on Thursday with heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range across portions of
eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday into the early portions
of next week as a series of storm systems affect eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
The best chance of thunderstorms will be on Sunday into Sunday night as a strong cold front
and associated upper level storm system move through the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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