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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
115 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
115 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...North of I-44.
ONSET...Late Tonight.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Afternoon heat indices around 100 degrees are expected this
afternoon as the unseasonably hot weather continues.

Gusty southerly winds combined with the hot temperatures and recent
dry conditions will raise the potential for rapid fire spread this
afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop in the terrain of far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon. Severe weather is not
expected with any activity that does develop but wind gusts to 50
mph and occasional lightning can be expected.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach northeastern
Oklahoma late tonight from the west and northwest. None of this
activity is expected to be severe, although frequent lightning, wind
gusts to 50 mph, and brief but locally heavy rainfall can be
expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become widespread across
much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas on Friday as a cold
front moves into the area. This front is expected to focus heavy
rainfall as it moves southward across the region through Sunday. An
axis of three to six inch rainfall amounts is expected to occur
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Friday
through Sunday, with locally heavier amounts likely. The location of
the heavier rain axis is uncertain at this time, but the latest
thinking is that the heaviest rainfall will focus on east central
and southeast Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas. The heavy
rains will raise the potential for flash and river flooding.

A Fall like cold front will bring potential for more thunderstorms
early next week before cooler and much drier air puts an end to
rain and storm chances midweek.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$



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