Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING, LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE, ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK...

As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area
later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected
across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches
of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10
inches possible. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of
which could be locally considerable.

Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Many of these
areas are 3 to 7 inches above normal over the last 2 weeks. Farther
east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the
saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more
susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would
also be susceptible. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined most
of our forecast area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall,
which is a level 3 of 4. This is highly unusual given we are 3 to 4
days from the event, which highlights the threat and the confidence
of the heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch will likely be needed
Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area.

On the riverine front, at least minor river flooding is possible at
many of our forecast points given the current rainfall forecast. In
areas that exceed 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river flooding
would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only account for
the next 48 hours of rainfall. Thus, current river forecasts do not
account for any rainfall from the tropical system at this point.
Stay tuned to later updates.
$$

73-YOUNG