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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-170900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
352 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 11 PM CDT for the
Texas Panhandle except Lipscomb County and Oklahoma Panhandle
except Beaver County. The strongest storms could be severe and be
capable of producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter and 70 mph
wind gusts. Heavy rainfall due to slow storm motions could bring
localized flooding. In addition, a tornado cannot be ruled out
though the threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms may
reach severe levels, especially on Monday. Large to very large
hail and damaging winds are the mains threats. There is also a
tornado threat late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through 11 PM CDT this evening.
Spotter activation may be needed Monday and Tuesday.

$$

Bieda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1257 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-171900-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1257 PM MDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are once again expected to
occur across the plains this afternoon and evening. Although all
of the plains will have a chance for isolated severe storms, the
overall highest chance will generally be along and east of a line
from Pueblo to Kim. Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to 1.5
inches in diameter will be possible. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out. In addition to the severe weather threat, locally
heavy rain will also be possible with the stronger storms.

Moisture has increased in the mountains during the last 24 hours,
and this will increase the risk for burn scar flooding in the
mountains this afternoon, especially the Junkins and Spring burn
scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the plains on
Monday and Tuesday. Main risks will be large hail and gusty winds
on both afternoons with a low risk for weak tornados. Strong to
severe storms are also possible on Thursday through Saturday over
the far eastern plains.

Flash flooding is possible Monday through Wednesday over the
Spring, Junkins, Decker, and Hayden Pass burn scars. Monday looks
to be the best set up for burn scar flash flooding.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday through
Saturday over the San Luis Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across the entire region.

$$

RODRIGUEZ/27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1147 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXZ021>044-171700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1147 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the dryline late this
afternoon, which will be located across the western South Plains near
the New Mexico border. If storms develop they will have a risk for
quickly becoming severe producing hail to 2 inches or larger, wind
gusts to 70 mph and torrential rainfall.

In addition, a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
to develop over northeast New Mexico late this afternoon, spreading
into the Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains this evening, and
then the Rolling Plains later tonight. Wind gusts in excess of 70
mph, hail to 2 inches diameter, and brief heavy rainfall will all be
possible with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected along and
east of a dryline Monday afternoon and evening, with significant
severe weather possible, favoring the southeast Texas Panhandle and
Rolling Plains. The risk for severe weather and flash flooding will
expand to include much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains late
Monday night into Tuesday as an upper level storm system approaches
the region.

More opportunities for thunderstorms will exist Wednesday and then
again Friday and Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe and produce heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171445-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
935 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon
mainly across portions of southern and central Oklahoma and
western north Texas. If a few storms do become severe, hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary threats.

By mid to late evening, thunderstorms may move out of the Texas
panhandle and into western and southwestern Oklahoma, and western
north Texas. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main
threat, although large hail is also possible. Storms will weaken
but could still result in strong wind gusts well into the night
as they move eastward toward central Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Localized flooding will be possible through tonight mainly across
portions of central and southern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue thru Saturday. Severe
thunderstorm chances return early Monday evening to the western
half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Very large hail up to
the size of baseballs, damaging winds exceeding 70 mph, and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday. Hail and gusty winds could accompany any of the
stronger thunderstorms.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding will be possible mainly along and south of Interstate 44
Monday thru at least Wednesday. Many locations across this region
could receive over 3 inches of total rainfall by the end of the
week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
406 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021

NMZ201>241-171015-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
406 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across the east central and northeast plains, where large
hail and damaging winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening across the east central and northeast plains, where large
hail and damaging winds are possible.

Critical fire weather conditions may develop across western New
Mexico late week into Saturday.

Dryline thunderstorms may become severe late week into Saturday,
especially across the eastern plains near the Texas border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today and Monday for the east
central and northeast plains due to the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

$$

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
451 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
451 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021 /351 AM MDT Sun May 16 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again late Sunday as
storms develop across eastern Colorado and move east into western
Kansas. The main risk from thunderstorms will be torrential rainfall
rates as storms may be slow-moving given weak mid level winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Thunderstorms are in the forecast for each period
Monday through Friday this week. Much of the additional
forecast rainfall will occur between Monday Night and Wednesday
Night.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Significant risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight, mainly across
far west central and southwest Kansas as storms move out
of Colorado.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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