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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
300 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
One or more thunderstorm complexes are expected to affect most of
the region late this evening and overnight as they arrive from the
west. These storms could pose threats for damaging wind gusts as well
as embedded tornadoes and hail. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead
to flash flooding and additional rises on rivers and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, some of which could
be severe. In addition, heavy rainfall will likely result in flash
flooding.

Thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend. Additional
rounds of heavy rainfall may cause further flooding issues and
significant rises on area rivers. Additionally, a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible overnight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Primarily along and south of Interstate 40.
ONSET... Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA... Primarily along and south of Interstate 40.
ONSET... Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Additional storms are expected to develop across eastern Oklahoma
and northwestern Arkansas into the evening hours. Some of these
storms could pulse up and be briefly severe with damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size possible. Thunderstorm chances
then continue into the overnight hours as a larger storm complex
approaches from central Oklahoma and north Texas. These storms
will also pose a limited severe weather risk as they spread into
eastern Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. Large hail and gusty winds
will be the main threats with any severe storms through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is likely especially
across portions of southeast Oklahoma. Flash flooding and
mainstem river flooding are possible, with major to
moderate river flooding potential across southeast Oklahoma.
Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to lessen by Friday
and portions of the upcoming weekend may remain dry.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$
Snider

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
421 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-182130-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
421 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rainfall with Flash Flooding and strong to severe
thunderstorms. The Risk levels are as follows... Slight Risk (Level 3
out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. Marginal Risk (Level 2 out of 5)
for Severe Weather.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms
will continue through Thursday. The Risk levels are as follows...
Tuesday...Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall.
Slight Risk for Severe Weather.

Wednesday...Moderate Risk (Level 3 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall
for southeast Texas, Slight Risk for southwest Louisiana.
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather.

Thursday through the Weekend additional heavy rainfall and flooding
is possible.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-181930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
226 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across a large portion of West
Central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Very large hail larger
than golf ball size is the primary threat. However, damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes are also possible. The highest risk area
is across the northwest Concho Valley and the Big Country, along
and north of Sterling City to Abilene line.

In addition to the severe storm threat, there is a potential for
heavy rainfall. With several rounds of storms possible, the
rainfall may be heavy enough to cause flash flooding of low lying
and flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The threat of strong to severe storms and and heavy rainfall will
continue across much of West Central Texas into Wednesday. After
a brief lull on Thursday, more storms will return for the upcoming
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be requested this afternoon and
tonight across a large portion of west central Texas.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-181100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1246 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region today,
ahead of an upper level disturbance that will move through the
area. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled
out, with damaging winds, hail, and brief heavy rainfall possible.
These showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening with
the departure of this disturbance.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms will again return to the region Tuesday
in advance of an upper level storm system that will progress
through the Southern Rockies and into West Texas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle by midweek. The threat for locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday across
East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of Southwest Arkansas and
possibly Western Louisiana, as a complex of showers and
thunderstorms moves into these areas. Some of these storms may
also become severe during the late afternoon through the evening
hours Tuesday, before the heavy rain and flash flood threat
increases across these areas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Widespread rainfall amounts of three to five inches are expected
this week across these areas this week, with isolated higher
amounts in excess of eight inches possible, especially over East
Texas. This rainfall will result in new rises and possible
flooding on area creeks and bayous, rivers and lakes. This
unsettled weather pattern will continue Thursday and Friday,
before gradually diminishing from east to west this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed today across portions
of the region.

$$

09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1159 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon in west Texas
and move eastward into the area this evening. The initial threats
will include very large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds
to 70 mph, and possibly a few tornadoes. This is most likely
during the early to mid evening hours across western north Texas
and southwest Oklahoma.

By late evening, storms will have consolidated into a line with
the primary threat becoming damaging winds to 70 mph, although
large hail will also be possible. Storms will continue moving
eastward primarily impacting the southern half of Oklahoma through
the night.

The risk of severe storms generally north of Interstate 40 is
present this evening and overnight, but comparatively lower.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding, perhaps significant, will be possible through the night
mainly across the southern half of Oklahoma. Areas that
experienced significant rainfall yesterday are at an increased
risk for flooding as additional heavy rain develops this evening
and tonight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
much of Oklahoma and all of western north Texas should prepare for
severe weather operations early this evening through late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue thru Saturday. A few severe
thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across portions of eastern and southeastern Oklahoma. Hail
up to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
will be possible. Strong to severe storms will again be possible
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding will remain possible mainly along and south of Interstate
44 thru at least Wednesday. Significant flooding may occur across
portions of southern and southeastern Oklahoma by Wednesday
morning. Many locations across southern Oklahoma and north Texas
could receive over 5 inches of total rainfall by the end of the
week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ021>044-181700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1151 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for the South
Plains and Rolling Plains this afternoon into tonight, with an
enhanced risk of severe weather for the southern Texas Panhandle.

Isolated to scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop near a dryline across the southwest Texas Panhandle and
western and central South Plains this afternoon. These storms will
become more enhanced where the dryline intersects an east-west
boundary crossing the southern and central South Plains and southern
Rolling Plains. These storms will quickly become severe and be
capable of producing baseball size hail, wind gusts to 75 mph,
torrential rainfall and tornadoes. This activity will move eastward
through the evening, likely growing into a larger complex of
thunderstorms as it moves off the Caprock. A hail, wind and heavy
rain threat will continue with the complex of thunderstorm through
the evening as well as still a risk for a few tornadoes.

Another round of severe thunderstorms capable of generating golf
ball size hail, wind gusts to 65 mph and intense rainfall and flash
flooding may develop over the southern South Plains and the Rolling
Plains late tonight, after midnight, and persist into Tuesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

More opportunities for thunderstorms will exist late Tuesday,
Wednesday and then again from Friday into next weekend. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
410 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-180915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
410 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form over the Rio
Grande Plains this evening and move eastward. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary hazards. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out west of a Rocksprings to Eagle Pass line this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding
is also possible.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
week. Thunderstorms could be strong to severe at times. Locally
heavy rainfall and flooding are also of a concern, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday, with a flash flooding threat increasing for
areas along and east of the I-35 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather and/or flash flooding
to the National Weather Service.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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