Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
516 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...West of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After Midnight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing late
this afternoon along and north of Interstate 44. Most of this
rainfall should remain on the light to moderate side, with some
decrease in areal coverage possible into early evening. Stronger
storms with the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding potential will move into northeast Oklahoma late tonight
into tomorrow morning. The highest rainfall amounts through
daybreak Tuesday will be west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma,
with 1 to 2 inch totals possible. Severe weather is not expected,
though a few stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail may
occur tonight across the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will likely be ongoing Tuesday
morning across northeast Oklahoma. This activity is expected to
spread across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Tuesday into Tuesday night. Widespread 1 to 3 inch
rainfall amounts are expected with locally higher totals.
Localized flooding will be possible with any storms that move over
the same areas. The heavy rainfall threat will begin to shift
east Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps through the area.

On Tuesday afternoon, limited severe weather potential will
exist for parts of southeast Oklahoma, with the coverage and
intensity dependent on whether breaks in the cloudiness occur and
resultant impacts on available instability.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecast today and Tuesday. A flood
watch may be needed in some areas for both flash flooding and
mainstem river flooding. Specific rainfall amounts will continue
to be refined over the next 24 hours.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
306 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to start late this
 evening and overnight for areas mainly west of Interstate 49. No
 severe weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur early Tuesday
morning and lasting off and on through Thursday. Highest chances
for thunderstorms are on Tuesday, where some isolated strong to
severe storms may be possible, but severe potential looks low at
the moment. Excessive rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday could
lead to minor flooding.

Gusty south winds will be possible by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
248 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
248 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered storms are ongoing across the Big Country, moving toward
western portions of North and Central Texas. Lightning and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main threat with any storms tonight.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday with locally
heavy rainfall leading to isolated flooding, mostly across Central
and East Texas. Isolated instances of strong to severe storms will
remain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
241930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
218 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight through Tuesday night

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tuesday

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and quarter
sized hail will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up
to quarter size will be possible over most of the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night. In addition brief heavy downpours may lead to
minor runoff issues.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Wednesday night.

$$

20

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/