weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
NWS Homepage

Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
404 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
404 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash flooding will be possible over north Mississippi, west
Tennessee and east central Arkansas. River flooding will continue
through all the Midsouth.

There is Marginal Risk of thunderstorms over northwest Mississippi
and east central Arkansas this afternoon through tonight. Damaging
winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday along
and south of the I-40 corridor, and a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms to the north of I-40. Damaging winds and flash
flooding will be primary threats. A brief tornado or two will be
possible Saturday afternoon.

The threat for hazardous weather is low beyond midevening
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through midevening Saturday.

$$

PWB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain is again very likely across Middle TN today and
especially tonight. 2 to 3 inches may fall by Saturday morning
and with the already very soggy ground, at minimum localized
flooding is expected, and widespread flooding is very possible.
The heaviest rain will be in the south today but move over the
I-40 corridor tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional heavy rainfall is likely on Saturday and flash
flooding will be very possible. Folks who live in southwest
portions of Middle TN need to have a plan in place now in case
the need arises to evacuate to higher ground. Please don`t take
this lightly. Have somewhere to go at a moment`s notice to escape
flood waters.

In addition, some strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening...especially across the southwest. Damaging
straight line winds and a couple tornadoes will be the main threat
with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through Saturday due to the
ongoing flooding potential and the severe potential on Saturday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
623 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast today as a frontal
boundary lingers just north of the area. An additional 2 to 3 1/2
inches of rain is possible, particularly over Northwest Alabama and
Southern Middle Tennessee. Locally higher amounts are possible under
thunderstorms that form. This will create additional runoff into
already swollen rivers and creeks across the area, and produce
dangerous flash flooding due to repeating episodes of heavy rainfall.
Please consult the Flash Flood Watch for additional information.

Overall shower coverage should wane somewhat in the late evening and
overnight, as a warm front approaches from the south.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Warmer and more unstable conditions will become established across
much of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. This additional
instability could result in the development of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, preceding a strong cold
front approaching from the west. Some of these storms ahead of and
accompanying the front could become strong to severe in intensity,
with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Brief tornadoes are
possible in the stronger storms. The strongest storms will be more
likely over northwest Alabama, where higher instability and shear
values will be realized. The front will progress in a west to east
manner across the area Saturday night, with a threat of severe
weather ending as it progresses to the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Formal activation of storm spotters and emergency management
personnel is not anticipated today. However, timely reports of
flooding or excessive rainfall will be greatly appreciated. Formal
activation may be necessary on Saturday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-035-231115-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Humphreys-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight, especially across northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today through tonight, several rounds of heavy rainfall will
likely result in widespread flash flooding and possible
significant flash flooding. Many roads could be flooded or
closed, and some structural flooding and water rescues are
likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

MSZ030>033-231115-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
513 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash
flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed, and some
structures may be potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible through this time, especially for southeast Arkansas,
far northeast Louisiana, and portions of the Mississippi Delta
region. Localized flash flooding will be possible across
remaining portions of central and southern Mississippi as well as
remaining portions of northeast Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night,
especially across southeast Arkansas and north-central
Mississippi. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to the size of golf
balls, and possibly strong tornadoes.
Across northeast Louisiana and most remaining portions of
Mississippi, severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
Saturday night, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to the size of golf balls possible. A few tornadoes will be
possible in these areas as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
406 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-231315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
406 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...through Tonight.

Areas of locally heavy rainfall will remain possible today and
tonight. Therefore, the flood potential remains high. Any heavy rain
on already saturated grounds will only enhance the flood potential.
The main flood threat area will be near and north of an Aliceville to
Calera to Wedowee line. Elsewhere, minor flooding is possible if
showers and storms move over the same areas more than once.

Central Alabama rivers will experience hefty rises the next several
days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate flood
levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. The hazardous
threats include tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. At this time,
the threat appears to begin around 6 PM in the west and may continue
through 3 AM in the east. These threats are greatest near and north
of a line from Demopolis to Calera to Centre. Outside these areas,
some thunderstorms can be expected but should be weaker in intensity.

Central Alabama rivers will experience hefty rises the next several
days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate flood
levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through Saturday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
406 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
406 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

A few general thunderstorms will be possible across the area
overnight, especially south of Interstate 44. Severe weather is
not expected.

Areas of fog will also be possible overnight across the area with
visibilities dropping below one mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the region
Saturday morning into the mid day hours. An isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out east of a Branson to
Salem Missouri line. Locally heavy rainfall across the same areas
could result in a limited flooding risk.

Strong low pressure and a front will move through the area
Saturday afternoon with increasing winds and dry air. Sustained
west to northwest wind speeds of 30 to 35 mph along with wind
gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be possible Saturday afternoon into the
evening hours. The high winds and dry airmass will result in an
elevated fire weather risk across southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas, especially in grassland areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-231100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
345 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is posted for tonight for all of west Kentucky
and a small part of southeast Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Please refer to the latest Flood Watch product for details.

Minor to major flooding continues on most area rivers, and areal
flooding from recent heavy rains continues in some locations. Refer
to their respective Flood Warnings and statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for all of west
Kentucky and a small part of southeast Illinois and southeast
Missouri until Saturday evening. Please refer to the latest
Flood Watch product for details.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. The possibility
exists for significant wind damage and possibly tornadoes.

Winds before and after the thunderstorm activity on Saturday may
gust between 30 and 40 mph at times.

Minor to major flooding continues on most area rivers, and areal
flooding from recent heavy rains continues in some locations. Refer
to their respective Flood Warnings and statements for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of rainfall and flooding are appreciated. Spotter
activation may be necessary on Saturday. Stay tuned to the latest
forecast and updates in case activation is requested.

$$

CN/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
317 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
317 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible throughout today
and tonight. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
this activity. The threat for seeing severe weather should be low
through this afternoon. By tonight into the overnight
period...some thunderstorms could become strong...with marginally
severe hail possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms will become likely during the morning
hours. Some of these thunderstorms will have the capability to
become severe...with damaging winds the primary threat expected.
Tornadoes will also be possible with this activity...with the hail
threat more limited but still a possibility. The best chances for
seeing severe weather will be across the southeast third of the
state during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Expect
the threat for severe weather to decrease by the mid and late
afternoon hours as the activity shifts east of the area.

Some heavy rainfall will also be possible with these
thunderstorms...with an increased flash flood threat expected.
Storm total rainfall amounts through Saturday afternoon will
range from 1 to 3 inches for the southeast third of the
area...with locally higher amounts possible. Ongoing river
flooding will likely continue as a result of this additional
heavy rainfall.

The threat for additional hazardous weather will then become low
by Sunday. However...continuing river flooding will remain a
concern as many rivers along the Black...Lower White and Ouachita
River Basins remain at high levels.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed across the southeast portion of
the area Saturday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

62/56/231

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE