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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
821 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
821 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Additional thunderstorms are expected later tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the area. The main potential hazards will
be cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall, but some
stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds are possible
across far western Missouri and southeast Kansas. While widespread
flooding is not expected, some localized flooding will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will then continue
through much of next week. Repeated rounds of rainfall may lead to
an additional flooding threat. There is a threat for strong
thunderstorms with gusty winds on Sunday, but potential through
the rest of the week remains unclear at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170600-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1254 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms will be possible over mainly central Kansas
overnight, heavy rainfall may produce some minor flooding, a few
strong storms could produce hail up to nickel size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through next
week, some of which could be strong to marginally severe. However,
at this time, the threat of widespread, and or significant, severe
weather looks low. Flooding concerns may increase through next
week, especially for any area that sees repeated rounds of
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
445 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late Afternoon/Early Evening.

DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms will remain possible late this afternoon and into
the evening across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas in the vicinity of of an outflow boundary left behind from
early morning storms. Organized severe weather is not expected,
however an isolated storm or two may produce hail up to quarter size
or wind gusts to near 60 miles an hour mainly this this evening
across parts of northeast Oklahoma.

Additional showers and thunderstorms may move into the area late
tonight or more likely Sunday morning, but severe weather is not
expected with these storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and storms are expected daily beginning Sunday
and likely continuing through midweek. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely with the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Flooding concerns may eventually increase next week, including
the potential for main stem river flooding. The overall pattern
does not favor widespread severe weather, however some increase in
severe potential may develop Monday and Tuesday as higher
instability develops across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
357 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
357 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible again tonight into early
Sunday, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. This may lead to
flash flooding as well as flooding of creeks and rivers. A few
strong to severe storms are also possible late Tonight into early
Sunday morning across the entire outlook area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop Sunday afternoon. A few
storms may be strong to severe Sunday afternoon across east
central KS. Some heavy rain is again possible, which may cause
minor flooding issues in areas that see heavy rain tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-162015-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
301 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight across parts of
the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, mainly
across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and far west
Kentucky.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely not be needed.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight.
This activity is expected to remain below severe limits.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected much of next week.
A few storms Sunday afternoon and evening may be strong south of
I-70. These storms may produce hail and gusty winds.

The showers and thunderstorms may lead to ponding of water, and rises
along area creeks and streams.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
401 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
401 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There could be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the north but overall, hazardous weather is not expected through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Rain chances will increase in coverage and magnitude over western
Arkansas beginning Sunday night and statewide on Monday. Several
rounds of potentially heavy rainfall are expected through the week
with western Arkansas seeing the highest amounts of rain.

At this time, three to five inches of rain is expected through
the end of the week but could be higher under any thunderstorms
that develop. Amounts will taper off to the east with the Delta
region only seeing an inch or two of rain.

This will be a multi-day rain event and help contribute to
elevated stream/river levels. Soil moisture remains high in many
parts of the state but with the rain falling over several days,
the flash flooding threat should remain localized.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

$$

232/56

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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