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Hydrologic Outlook
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087-099-101-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-
169-175-177-181-185-187-189-181730-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1127 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

...Heavy rain and flooding likely later this week...

A very active weather pattern will continue to affect Middle
Tennessee over the next 7 days, with numerous rounds of rain and
some thunderstorms expected nearly every day. Off and on rain and
a few thunderstorms will continue into tonight, with a brief
period of dry weather expected on Monday. Several waves of heavy
rain are then anticipated Tuesday through Thursday, with
additional heavy rain likely next weekend.

Latest forecast rainfall totals over the next 7 days range from 3
to 6 inches over northwest Middle Tennessee to over 9 inches in
southeast Middle Tennessee. These forecast rainfall amounts,
combined with the unusually wet start to the year and already
saturated ground, will likely lead to flooding along area rivers,
creeks, and streams, as well as some roadways, low lying areas,
and other poor drainage locations.

Those with interest throughout Middle Tennessee should continue
to closely monitor the potential heavy rainfall and flooding this
week. For the latest forecast updates and river forecasts, visit
our website at weather.gov/nashville.

$$

Hydrologic Outlook
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123-129-135-139-143-187-213-223-227-233-281-291-295-311-313-
181630-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1122 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
Forecast rainfall amounts through this week continue to be high,
with the rainfall accumulating over several rounds. Current
total forecast amounts for this period range between 5 to 7
inches across the higher terrain of North and Northwest Georgia,
with isolated higher amounts. Amounts of 2 to 5 inches are
forecast across the Atlanta Metro area generally along and north
of I-85 and I-20. The first round will begin this afternoon
and tonight in North Georgia with a break during the day
Monday...followed by additional rounds of heavy rain Tuesday
through the remainder of week.

.IMPACTS...
With the expected rainfall amounts, flash flooding will be
possible. Periods of heavy rain can overwhelm or clog storm
drains and ditches with debris and cause extensive street flooding
and road ponding. This is especially true this time of year as
fallen leaves block or impede drainage systems. Take time ahead of
the rain to clear leaves and debris from these drainage systems.

Flooding of some of the larger creeks or rivers is likely with
the expected storm total rainfall amounts and should be monitored
closely. Quickly accumulating rainfall can produce widespread
minor flooding of smaller, fast-responding creeks, and moderate or
higher flooding may be possible.

.ACTIONS...
Stay alert to changing forecasts. A Flood or Flash Flood Watch is
likely to be issued this week for large portions of north Georgia.
Know what to do if a Warning is issued, particularly if you live
near a creek or river.

For additional hydrologic information, visit our website at
weather.gov/atlanta. CLick on the Rivers and Lakes tab under
current weather to access the latest river state and precipitation
information.

$$

Stellman

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
901 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019



...The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a hydrologic
outlook for potential river flooding...


This Hydrologic Outlook is based on both observed and forecast
precipitation. The rivers may respond differently than indicated...if
actual precipitation is greater or less than expected.

Later statements...possibly warnings...will be issued as additional
information becomes available.

Additional information is available at:
http://www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oax

NEC153-155-180800-
901 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Outlook information for
  The Platte River Near Ashland.
* At  8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* No flooding is occurring...and no flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river may rise to around 19.4 feet over the
next couple of days with fluctuations of plus or minus one foot due
to ice.

$$

Hydrologic Outlook
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163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-172100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
800 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 /204 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

...Prolonged Period of Heavy Rains and Possible Flooding from
Late Tuesday through Thursday across much of east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia, and far Southwest North Carolina...

Showers and possibly thunderstorms will bring heavy rain to
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina starting late
Tuesday afternoon. Periods of heavy rain will spread across the
rest of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia Tuesday night and
continue area-wide through Thursday.

The heaviest rainfall will likely fall across the Plateau, central
and southern sections of East Tennessee, and southwest North
Carolina where 5 to 7 inches are possible. Locally heavier amounts
possible. Across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee,
rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possible.

Some areas in east Tennessee have seen record breaking rainfall
over the past couple of days, especially around the Chattanooga
area. Since the ground is already saturated and streams are high,
any additional heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding.
Significant stream flooding, flooding of roadways, additional
ponding of low lying areas, and mud slides are possible. Major
river flooding is also a concern for mid to late next week.

There is still some uncertainty on the timing of storms and exact
amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days. We will continue
to monitor this situation and will pass along more information as
the system approaches. There is a possibility of Flood Watches
being issued for at least some parts of the area by mid week.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates.


$$

Hydrologic Outlook
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069-071-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-157-167-183-181200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
559 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

...Heavy rainfall and flooding possible across the Mid-South this
week...

An active weather pattern will persist across the Mid-South this
week. Several periods of heavy rainfall are expected, especially
Tuesday and Tuesday night, and again for Thursday through
Saturday as a series of upper level disturbances move across the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

Latest 7 day forecast rainfall totals indicate 3-6 inches of rain
will be possible west of the Mississippi River, and 5-10 inches
east with the highest amounts over North Mississippi and portions
of West Tennessee. These forecast rain amounts combined with an
already saturated ground may lead to flooding of some roads, low
lying areas, and other poor drainage locations. This may also lead
to rises in area rivers and increased potential of river
flooding.

Continue to closely monitor forecasts and updates regarding the
heavy rainfall and flooding potential this week. Visit our website
at weather.gov/memphis for the latest forecast updates and river
forecasts.

$$

Hydrologic Outlook
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-172300-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

...Rounds of Moderate to Heavy Rain to Affect the Region Through
the End of the Week...

Multiple disturbances are expected to move across the region
during the week. Some of these disturbances will transport large
amounts of moisture into eastern Kentucky, resulting in several
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall. Between half of an inch and
an inch and a quarter of rain is forecast through tonight,
for locations generally south of the Mountain Parkway. A brief
break in rain chances will occur from Monday into Tuesday Morning.
However, heavier rounds of rainfall will affect the area from late
Tuesday and into next weekend. Generally between 2 and 5 inches
of rainfall is forecast from Tuesday through Saturday. The
heaviest rainfall is expected across the Cumberland River Basin in
southeast Kentucky.

Given the abnormally wet conditions over the last few weeks, the
ground is already saturated. Should the current forecast rainfall
amounts materialize, flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers will
be likely by the middle to end of the week, especially along the
larger stems of the Kentucky and Cumberland rivers. The threat of
mud and rock slides will also increase.

$$

JMW/GEOGERIAN/JP

Hydrologic Outlook
KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-172100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
357 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 /257 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

...Heavy Rainfall Threat for Central Kentucky Tuesday Night and
then in Waves Through Saturday...

A frontal boundary is expected to stall somewhere near the region
by the middle to end of this coming week. During this time,
multiple waves of moisture are expected to ride along the boundary
bringing periods of widespread rain to the area. Given the recent
heavy rain, ongoing river flooding in spots, and additional
rainfall possibly totaling several inches, there is concern for
hydrologic problems through next weekend and likely into the
following week.

Right now, the heaviest rain is forecast to fall mainly across
southern Kentucky where 3 to 5 inches of rain are forecast
Tuesday afternoon through next Saturday. Slightly lesser, but
still significant, amounts of 1 to 3 inches of rain across the
rest of central Kentucky. It is important to note that forecast
rainfall amounts and locations can change over the coming days so
stay up to date on the latest forecast.

Anyone with interests along area rivers and creeks should be
prepared for exacerbated or new flooding concerns over the next
week. Of particular concern are the Green, Cumberland, and
Kentucky river basins where data suggests the highest threat will
be.

One final note worth mentioning is that longer range forecasts
show another medium confidence signal for another round of
significant rainfall late this coming weekend into the following
week. In addition, the Climate Prediction Center has our region
highlighted for greater chances of above normal rainfall in both
the 8 to 14 day outlook and the Week 3 to 4 outlook. If these
projections hold true, flooding and river flooding concerns could
last for multiple weeks.

$$

BJS/EBW/RJS

Hydrologic Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
346 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Flooding chances continue to increase for next week...

A wet pattern will set up across the Tennessee Valley for much of the
next week, with several rounds of heavy rainfall affecting Northern
Alabama and portions of Southern Middle Tennessee beginning late
Monday. Throughout the week ahead, a frontal boundary will stall
across the area, though there is some uncertainty as to exactly where
this feature will end up. The heaviest rainfall axis is expected to
be along this stalled frontal boundary, where anywhere between 6 to
9 inches of rainfall are forecast. Isolated higher amounts are
possible.

While rainfall is literally forecasted for every day next week, the
greatest potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will be from
late Tuesday through at least Thursday, if not lingering into
Friday. Given the wet ground conditions in place from recent
rainfall, much of this expected 6-9" of rainfall will immediately
convert to runoff. This will overwhelm the natural drainage
processes, leading to flash flooding potentially at the onset of the
heavy rain, and later in the week, widespread river flooding. Again,
while there is still some uncertainty in exactly where the front will
stall, nearly all of the river gages on the Tennessee River (and
those on tributaries that feed into the Tennessee River) will likely
reach flood stage at some point next week. The question will be how
many will reach Moderate Stage (or higher). Lingering flooding on the
Tennessee River will begin late next week, and will likely linger
into the following week as well.

Residents across Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee
should continue to monitor this unfolding weather situation over the
holiday weekend and stay tuned to further forecast updates from NWS
Huntsville!

For additional hydrologic information, visit our website at
weather.gov/huntsville.

$$

Stumpf

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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