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041
FXUS62 KRAH 290705
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of moisture-starved, reinforcing cold fronts will lead high
pressure from central Canada and the Great Lakes to the Middle
Atlantic and Carolinas this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Embedded within the Eastern US trough, a shortwave trough currently
over the Ohio Valley will eject east, in clipper fashion, as a
reinforcing cold front pushes south through the area during the
evening. Underneath deep W-NWLY flow, PWATS will fall into the 10
percent of normal range with only some weak elevated instability
available. Any shallow convection that tries to develop will remain
very isolated and generally confined near the NC/VA border.
Otherwise, dry and noticeably less humid. Highs ranging from lower
80s north to upper 80s south. Lows tonight 55-60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Wednesday...

With the Eastern US trough still overhead, an amplifying shortwave
trough will dive south through the Mid-Atlantic states during the
day, and then into NC through the overnight hours. PWATS will
continue to hover around the 10th percentile, with little to no
instability to work with. However, isolated showers/non-zero pops
are possible Thursday evening and into Thursday night, mainly across
eastern/coastal plain counties.

Otherwise, cooler as Canadian high pressure builds south into the
area. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south.
Lows in the lower to middle 50s north to upper 50s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

The upper level trough will shift east and offshore on Fri, with the
sub-tropical ridge progressing eastward toward the region Fri night,
then continuing slowly eastward through the area Sat/Sat night.
Meanwhile to the west, a s/w trough will move eastward through the
MS Valley Sat/Sat night, then continue eastward across the
Appalachians and through the mid-Atlantic Sun/Sun night. Another s/w
will follow behind it, however the model guidance still varies wrt
timing and track. At the surface, cool high pressure over the OH
Valley Fri, will build slowly esewd into the mid-Atlantic Fri night,
then through the Carolinas Sat/Sat night. The high will move ese to
off the Southeast US coast on Sun, where it should sit through Tue.
A warm front should lift through the area Sun night/Mon, with
southerly return flow will once again advect warm, moist air into
the area through early next week. For now, expect largely dry
weather through Sun, with chances for precipitation returning for
Sun night through Tue. Temperatures should be near to below normal
through Sun, then moderating through early/mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Isolated showers are possible across the
north/northeastern NC between 21-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will build from cntl Canada to
the middle Atlantic and favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat.
As the high shifts offshore, sly flow and increasing moisture will
increase the risk of patchy fog and stratus Sun morning and a chance
of showers/storms Sun afternoon-night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/MWS