604
FXUS64 KFWD 010827
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
/Today and Tonight/

A MCS with a well-defined cold pool is moving east across West
Texas early this morning. Corfidi vectors indicate it should
continue moving SE around 20 kts through the pre-dawn hours,
gradually weakening as it moves into more unfavorable low-level
inflow. We expect the leading edge of the cold pool to move into
our westernmost counties north of I-20 around 3-4 AM. By this
time, it should be sub-severe with wind gusts to around 30-40
mph, maybe a few storms, and a contracting area of stratiform
precip. While a few showers are possible across North Texas after
sunrise, most of the area will be precip-free early this morning.

The MCS will leave a stalled outflow boundary across the region
as well as a remnant MCV somewhere across North Texas. Both of
these features should serve as a source of ascent for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the guidance has
been notoriously bad at handling these small-scale features this
week, we are still uncertain where these features will be later
today. Due to this, we have maintained broad-brushed 20-30 PoPs
across much of the region this afternoon. We`re more confident
that some storms will develop today, but the low PoPs are due to
lack of confidence regarding where the storms will be. We have
slightly more confidence that most of the convection should take
place along or east of I-35 with storms moving ESE after
developing.

The parameter space for severe weather isn`t off the charts like
it was for much of last week, but there is still sufficient deep-
layer shear and instability to support a low-end severe wind and
hail risk. After the afternoon convection dissipates after sunset,
we`ll have to shift our attention west to another MCS that should
move into western North Texas early Sunday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

North and Central Texas will lie beneath the northern flank of a
mid level ridge (centered over Mexico) at the start of the period.
The resulting flow aloft will create a couple opportunities for
thunderstorms to start next week. The first of which will be late
Sunday as the ridge is somewhat compromised by a shortwave trough
passing through the Plains. An active afternoon and evening of
convection is expected from the Dakotas southward into the
Southern Plains, with North and Central Texas sitting on the
southern edge. It is likely that the dryline will provide a focus
for convective initiation over Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon,
with activity propagating east-southeast through our forecast area
Sunday evening. Storms will encounter a strengthening cap the
farther east they get, which should cause weakening as they move
through and east of the I-35 corridor. Until they weaken, a
damaging wind threat may exist primarily west of I-35.

A second shortwave will generate another round of storms Monday
afternoon and evening. The latest guidance places the higher
thunderstorm probabilities either along the Red River where the
stronger ascent will reside, or across Central Texas within an
axis of exceptionally high instability. Storms may end up being
isolated, but model soundings support supercellular structure
with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with
any storm which may develop.

A slight pattern shift will occur on Tuesday as the ridge expands
north, bringing a return to northwest flow aloft. A deepening
upper trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley will amplify the
pattern for the mid to late week period. It looks at this time
like the ridge will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, shutting off
our rain chances for a day or two while providing our warmest
weather of the week. The north to northwest flow will eventually
usher in another weak cold front, which will likely cross the Red
River on Thursday and stall somewhere across North or Central
Texas. This boundary and additional disturbances in the flow aloft
will bring more chances for rain and storms late next week into
the following weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and light southeast flow should prevail through most of the
pre-dawn hours. The anvil of a convective complex over West Texas
is currently moving over the region and will remain in place for
much of the morning. The storms should weaken as they move into
the western D10 ARR/DEP gates, with only a remnant outflow
boundary remaining by the time it moves into D10 this morning.

The stalled boundary and a weak mid-level disturbance should help
develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms over North Texas this
afternoon. We have introduced VCTS to the TAFs to account for
this, but we do not have high enough confidence that storms will
take place over D10 itself to add a TS TEMPO at this time. Most
storms should move east late in the afternoon and dissipate after
sunset.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  74  89  75  90 /  30  20  30  30  20
Waco                89  74  88  74  90 /  20  10  30  20  20
Paris               86  69  88  71  86 /  30  10  30  20  40
Denton              87  72  88  73  90 /  30  20  30  30  20
McKinney            87  72  87  73  88 /  30  20  30  30  30
Dallas              89  74  89  74  90 /  30  20  30  30  30
Terrell             88  72  87  73  88 /  30  10  30  20  30
Corsicana           88  74  89  75  90 /  30  10  30  20  20
Temple              89  75  88  75  90 /  20  10  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       88  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$