039
FXUS63 KMPX 011211
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
711 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and clouds will gradually clear from west to east today.

- Severe thunderstorms & localized heavy rain possible Sunday
evening, especially across western and southern Minnesota.

- Another chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is likely
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Today through Monday...Showers continue to diminish in coverage and
intensity early this morning along and east of a line from roughly
Fairmont to Mankato to the eastern Twin Cities metro up through
Taylors Falls. An additional tenth to two tenths of an inch of
rainfall is possible through sunrise as the showers continue to
progress to the northeast. Hi-res models indicate that some
redevelopment of showers in this same general area and western
Wisconsin is possible later this morning as a weak 700mb wave moves
through. Otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Attention then turns to Sunday afternoon and the
threat of additional rain and severe thunderstorms. While the SPC
SWODY2 Slight Risk was expanded eastward to include the western half
of Minnesota and the Marginal Risk encompassing the remainder
of the MPX forecast area, there are a few factors that may
impact how much severe weather we end up seeing. First and most
notably, forecast CAPE values have decreased from run to run
over the last 24 hours or so. This may be in part to some Sunday
morning convection that CAMs are highlighting across western
and southern Minnesota associated with a LLJ/WAA. This cloud
cover would prevent afternoon highs from reaching the low 80s
from previous forecasts and limit instability. Another factor
is the timing of the cold front moving from the Dakotas into
Minnesota, which seems to have slowed down from previous
forecasts. Storms coming from the Dakotas are expected to grow
upscale into an MCS as it crosses into Minnesota Sunday evening
with the main threat being damaging winds and heavy rain. The
system would weaken as it continues eastward into Wisconsin
around sunrise Monday with showers ending by mid afternoon.

Tuesday through Friday...After a brief break from active
weather Monday afternoon, rain and thunderstorm chances return
Tuesday. A negatively tilted 500mb trough is forecast to move
across southern Canada and the Dakotas through early Wednesday
morning. There are still timing differences between the guidance
as well as slight differences in placement and strength, but
another round of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms
appears likely. There will be plenty of Gulf moisture advected
northward with PW values above the 90th percentile of
climatological norms and high temperatures in the low to mid
80s. As of right now, this system looks to be stronger than
Sunday`s and definitely bears watching over the next couple of
days. Behind this system, we get back into northwest flow aloft
with the 500mb low lingering across northeastern Minnesota.
Additional shower chances are possible through the second half
of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions, but there are a few pockets of IFR
clouds and fog across the region, as well as some light rain
that will impact KRNH and KEAU this morning. For the rest of
today, winds will be light, and skies will clear as drier air
moves across the region.

KMSP...
The lowest stratus is just to the west of KMSP. For now have a
tempo for MVFR, but it is possible that clouds could be IFR.
Drier air will move across the region this afternoon, with VFR
conditions expected the remainder of the TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, MVFR/-RA likely late chc TS. Wind S 10-20 kts.
MON...MVFR/-RA early chc TS, then VFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR early, then MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB