598
FXUS66 KMTR 290913
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
213 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

A few degrees warmer across the board today as the warm up
continues. Slight cool down over the weekend with another more
notable warming trend on the horizon next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The upper low in the PacNW which slowed our warming trend slightly
pulls away today, and we begin to see 500 mb height rises with the
next ridge building in. With slightly drier air in place, very
limited overnight stratus. In fact, as of writing the only
locations seeing marine stratus are the coastal near Santa Cruz
and patchy areas along the Monterey Bay. This clear start to the
day will help boost daytime highs a little higher with what looks
like a wonderful day ahead, weather-wise. Expect highs in the low-
to-mid 80s inland, 70s around much of the immediate Bay Area, and
low-to-mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The warm up continues with Thursday and Friday looking to be the
warmest. Each of these days are likely to see high temps in the
upper 80s to near 90 for inland areas, mid-to-upper 70s across the
immediate Bay Area, and a spread of low-to-upper 60s along the
coast. The warming trend is again thwarted by a deepening upper
trough in the Gulf of Alaska, extending into the PacNW. Only a few
degrees cooler, the weekend into early next week will be stellar
in terms of "outdoor weather".

Longer term guidance is hinting at a more robust ridge building
across the western half of the US by mid-to-late next week.
Perhaps among the warmest temperatures so far this year...about
6-12 degrees above normal. Stay tuned to the forecast for any
heat-related messaging that may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

Widespread VFR through the TAF period for most terminals with the
exception of Monterey Bay. Models are in good agreement that stratus
is not likely to develop overnight tonight for most regions. Winds
will continue to ease through the night to become mostly light. In
the afternoon tomorrow, onshore winds increase to become breezy,
then ease to become light into the night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Current satellite
shows a cloudless sky. High confidence in maintaining VFR. In the
afternoon of Wednesday, westerly winds increase to become moderate,
and gusting to around 25 knots. Winds then slowly ease into the
nighttime, but do not become light until the mid morning of
Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Although currently VFR, a small patch of
stratus is developing over the Salinas valley. There is some
agreement amongst models for low cloud development over the region.
However, confidence in development of an MVFR CIG is only moderate.
Current thoughts are that low clouds will likely develop and
intermittently form BKN CIGs over terminals briefly. By daybreak,
clouds should begin to dissipate, leading to widespread VFR. Winds
onshore and breezy in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

Strengthening surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean
in addition to an upper-level trough will allow for strong
northwesterly winds to prevail today and tomorrow with gale force
gusts especially possible over the northern zones and outer
waters.  This surface high pressure will weaken and retrograde to
the west  heading into the weekend allowing for northwesterly
winds to  slightly diminish. Significant wave heights will build
to 12 to  14 feet by Thursday with an abating trend set for Friday
into the  weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Thursday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...Sarment

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