Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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149 FXUS61 KBUF 031758 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front and trough moving through from the north will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region at times through this afternoon. An area of high pressure will then bring dry and comfortable weather tonight through Independence Day. Heat and humidity will then build over the weekend, with more unsettled weather early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A couple batches of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, first during the early afternoon, then again later in the afternoon. These will occur as a cold front tracks southeast across the region which will then be followed by a trough. With decent CAPE values of 1,000+ J/kg and some marginal shear values of around 30 kts, SPC has most of the BUF forecast area in a `Marginal Risk` for severe thunderstorms. Timing for the frontal passage will be through early afternoon for most of the BUF forecast area. Strong to severe thunderstorms currently across portions of the Finger Lakes and additional storms are developing across SE Ontario, tracking toward the St. Lawrence River. High temperatures today will be in the low 70s over the higher terrain to near 80 for the lower elevations. A few scattered showers/storms may linger into the early evening hours, especially east of Lake Ontario. High pressure and a surface ridge will start to build into the region tonight, centering over WNY by Friday afternoon. This will result in mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the low to upper 50s. The sfc high over the region will also result in a beautiful 4th of July holiday with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity levels, light winds and temperatures in the low 70s to near 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid-level ridge axis centered across the upper Great Lakes Friday night, will support surface high pressure to settle across New York State. As the ridge advances eastward towards the Northeast through Sunday, the corresponding surface high will advect east towards the New England coastline. Meanwhile, the next mid-level trough will follow up behind the ridge, supporting a surface to develop along an existing cold front across the central Great Lakes Sunday before traveling east towards the eastern Great Lakes. Initially, expect calm and quiescent conditions to persist through Sunday with the surface high and mid-level ridge overhead. Two items of note: 1.) While most of the area will remain on the dry side, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop across the western Southern Tier (Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties) due to the influences of the Lake Erie lake breeze boundary. 2.) After a cool and drier start Friday night, warm air and moisture advection ahead of the incoming system will begin to build Saturday and linger through Sunday, which will reintroduce the warm muggy conditions back in across Western and North Central New York Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will result in heat index values to flirt near Heat Advisory criteria, especially in the warmer valleys of the Finger Lakes region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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After the initial trough sliding from the central Great Lakes Sunday night into the eastern Great Lakes Monday, general broad troughing will lie across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday. With the initial trough, a surface cold front will gradually sag south across the region late Sunday night through Monday introducing showers and thunderstorms to pass from northwest to southeast. In the wake of the front, and with the general troughing pattern in place overhead, cooler and drier air will advect into the region and result in temperatures to trend towards normal for early to mid July. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes near the later half of the week as the broad trough axis crosses the area and supports a wavy warm front across the Ohio Valley.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR today. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon. Showers/storms will accompany the passing cold front and later a passing trough. Brief reductions to both VSBY and CIGs can`t be ruled out if a heavier downpour passes over a terminal. Tonight through Friday, mainly VFR for all terminals with high pressure building into the region. The exception being for JHW where some fog across the Southern Tier may cause lower VSBYs to MVFR. Outlook... Friday night through Sunday...VFR. Sunday night through Monday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Tuesday...VFR
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&& .MARINE... Northwest winds today will cause some choppy conditions across the lakes. Scattered showers/storms may have some brief gusty winds over the waters through the afternoon. An area of high pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday, resulting in weak winds over the lakes and little to no waves. Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...SW MARINE...SW