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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101101
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW ADVANCING EASTWARD...COMBINING WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND A BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS PROVIDING
THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SETUP WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...SHIFTING THE BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM BECOMES DOMINANT...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WITH THE
WINDS PICKING UP...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN
THE FORECAST.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW...WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT...SNOWFALL
FROM THIS EXITING LOW WILL END THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN. AMOUNT OF
LAKE EFFECT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH SOME VEERING IN THE WIND
PROFILE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB...ALONG WITH LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS FROM GETTING
MODERATE SNOW WITH UP-SLOPE FLOW. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAA WILL KICK IN THURSDAY...
WHICH WILL DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.


DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS...ALONG WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST...SHOULD RESULT IN THE TAPERING OFF OF
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY WEEKS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FAIRLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE
EASTERN CANADA VORTEX BRINGING LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE MUCH LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SNOW MAKER. COLD WITH LEFTOVER
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO CROSS NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN PA/MD WITH
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS...WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING FURTHER WEST...WITH
MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF VFR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST COAST...WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE...WITH MOST AREAS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT BY LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW END MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED IFR
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PA PORTS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH CONDITIONS PERHAPS IMPROVING TO VFR. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$