-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
307
FXUS61 KAKQ 301926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring hot and humid
conditions through Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday, and slowly crosses the local area Tuesday night
through Wednesday, bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the
week into next weekend as high pressure brings somewhat lower
humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 AM EDT Monday...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected late this
  afternoon/evening, primarily over the N/NW zones where an
  isolated strong to severe storm is possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge
well offshore of the SE US coast, centered between Bermuda and
the Caribbean, with sfc high pressure in the same general
region. The upper ridge extends ENE into the Carolinas and
southern VA, while an upper level trough is in place across
central Canada and the northern Plains. Warm and humid across
the local area with temperatures primarily in the low-mid 80s
under a mostly sunny sky.

Sfc low pressure, currently over the upper MS Valley to N of
Lake Superior, will track E today, lifting a stationary front
that is already north of the local area farther off to the north
into the NE CONUS this aftn. There is enough of a pressure
gradient to keep SW winds strong enough today near the coast to
minimize any seabreeze influences, and this setup will favor the
highest PoPs this aftn/early evening across the N/NW zones where
shear will be a little stronger, with generally only isolated
showers/tstms expected elsewhere. The environment today will
continue to feature good instability/low level lapse rates and
strong daytime heating, but with fairly weak shear for most (15-20kt).
SPC has our far N/NW zones in a Marginal risk for localized
strong to damaging wind gusts (shear is forecast to increase to
~25kt in the far north late this aftn/early evening). It will
continue to be hot and humid today, with forecast highs above
seasonal averages but within 1 std dev (generally 90-95F with
the highest temperatures across SE VA and NE NC). Dewpoints in
the lower to mid 70s during peak heating should yield heat
indices of 98-104F, with a few pockets of ~105F possible in the
SE. Convection wanes overnight with another warm humid night
with lows in the mid to locally upper 70s/around 80F in the
urban areas and near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Frontal passage Tuesday night will bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to the area with a Marginal SVR Risk and a
  Marginal to Slight ERO risk for day 2 (Tue AM through early
  Wed AM).

- Front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Marginal ERO for Wed in SE zones).

A cold front will advance towards our area from the NW Tuesday.
PW values increase as the front approaches our area Tuesday
afternoon. A little better flow aloft arrives later Tuesday aftn
and evening associated with the upper trough. This could result
in improved storm organization and the entire area is in a
marginal severe risk for Tuesday, with a Slight Risk just off to
our north). Additionally, locally heavy rain is possible with a
moisture rich airmass, and WPC has a Slight risk over northern
portions of the FA and a Marginal into SE VA. There is still
some question as to mid level lapse rates (the NAM is showing
somewhat better values in the 6-6.5C range Tuesday night, but
the GFS remains weaker). Overall, the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts with hail still a fairly minimal concern. Hot and
humid Tuesday, but not unusual for the start of July ahead of
the front with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s SE
(where PoPs stay fairly low through most of the day), to around
90F in the piedmont. Peak heat indices in the upper 90s W to
near 105F SE.

30/00z guidance continues to suggest that the front will be slow
to push to the SE Wednesday, keeping increased rain chances to
SE VA and NE NC through Wed aftn. High temperatures drop into
the 80s Wednesday with PoPs ranging from 15-30% N to 60-70% S
with the front lingering over the locally area. The SVR threat
will be diminished, but locally heavy rain will still be possible
over the SE through the aftn. Drying out Wed evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through the extended.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

The 30/00Z EPS/GEFS remain consistent with yesterday`s runs,
pushing the front S of the area by Thursday, with PW values
dropping below normal by Thursday/Friday. Given this, the
secondary front that moves through the region Thursday night
will have less moisture to work with, and PoPs are less than 15%
at this time. Highs return to the lower 90s for most on Thursday,
but dewpoints drop a few degrees. By Friday, as sfc high
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes moves SE into the local
area, dewpoints are forecast to only be in the low-mid 60s into
central VA to the upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in the mid 80s
to near 90F behind the secondary front, with lows Friday night
dropping into the 60s for most of the area, so some relative
relief (at least for early July standards) is expected. Upper
ridging will start to build across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the 90s, but dewpoints
will be slower to recover and mainly dry conditions are
expected for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast as of
18z, with a frontal boundary lingering N of the region. VFR with
developing aftn CU and a SW wind of 8-12kt, which is gusting to
15-20kt toward the coast. Showers/tstms have developed along the
sea-breeze E of SBY, with some isolated convection developing
over S-central VA. The probability of tstms directly impacting
any of the terminals this aftn/evening is 20% or less, so
thunder has not been included in the 30/18z TAFs. Continued VFR
and becoming mostly clear tonight with a 5-10kt SSW wind. VFR
conditions prevail Tuesday. Shower/tstm chances increase to
20-30% 18-21z Tuesday from RIC-SBY, and closer to 00z toward
the coast as a cold front approaches from the NW. Any
showers/tstms have the potential to produce brief flight
restrictions, mainly in vsby from heavy rain along with locally
strong wind gusts.

The cold front will be slow to cross the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday with occasional showers/tstms capable of
producing brief flight restrictions, again mainly vsby in heavy
rain. VFR Thursday through Saturday as drier air builds into
the region behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories go into effect tonight through early
  Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
  extended period.

High pressure continues to dominate from the southwest, resulting in
SW winds between 10-15 kt with a few gusts greater than 15 kt in the
coastal waters. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon into
tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next frontal
passage. Small Craft Advisories go into effect for coastal waters
south of Parramore Island and the Currituck Sound at 7 PM, with
winds ramping up to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. The Ches. Bay
and lower James river will follow, with SCA beginning at 10 PM with
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds will likely have a
brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon Tuesday, as the
marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase once again
Tuesday afternoon and evening. SCA for the northern coastal waters
will go into effect 11 AM Tuesday as winds and seas increase late
morning. Waves will peak in the bay early morning Tuesday at 2-3 ft
with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late afternoon/evening, seas will peak
at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain elevated through early Wednesday
morning before starting to taper off. Looking at the extended
forecast, benign marine conditions will resume by mid-week and area
expected to continue through the holiday weekend.

The rip current risk is currently low for all beaches, but will be
moderate tomorrow for all beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/NB