Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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703 FXUS61 KALY 121633 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1233 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and widely thunderstorms today into tonight with any storm capable of locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds. Warm and muggy conditions continue through tomorrow with a break for dry weather before a slow moving cold front ushers in additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Monday. Dangerous heat and humidity then returns Tuesday through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon through Monday ahead of a cold front with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Isolated flash flooding is possible. Discussion: A mid level disturbance and a sfc trough under the mid level ridge will focus another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the early to mid afternoon. The thunderstorms are not expected to be severe with lack of robust organization with 0-6 km bulk shear on the latest 00Z HREFSs 15 KT or less. However, mean SBCAPEs will be 1000-1500 J/kg with above normal PWATs (1.25-2.00"). The 3-km HRRR, NAMNest and ARW-WRF all indicated scattered coverage and heavy rainfall will be the main focus, though with somewhat of an inverted-V signature on the soundings and with pcpn loading, one can not completely rule out an isolated severe, so we included the gusty winds and heavy rain wording in the afternoon into the early evening. Sfc dewpoints will be in the 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices just fall below 95F in the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys. No heat advisories today. Max temps will be mainly in the mid-upper 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to lower/spotty mid 80s over the hills and mtns. A muggy night is expected tonight with the showers and thunderstorms decreasing and ending with the loss of the diurnal heating. The mid level ridge axis will be over the region. There is a signal in the CAM`s/short range guidance and ensembles that the offshore sfc high near Nova Scotia may actually force the warm front westward across the region Sunday morning like a back door front. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. Some changes for Sunday include slightly lower dewpoints with the frontal boundary potentially west of most of the region with the sfc high near Nova Scotia in control to start the day. Lower dewpoints actually hint at heat indices or "feels-like" temps lower in the lower 90s in the valleys with perhaps a few pixels near 95F. Dewpoints will still be in the 60s to around 70F. The warm front lifts back northward during the afternoon, as cold front and a prefrontal sfc trough approaches from the west. Low and mid level heights gradually fall. A line of showers/t-storms may reach the western Dacks/western Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills late in the pm. Increasing deep shear to 20-25 KT with moderate instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg will allow for some potential for damaging wind gusts in the late pm/early evening in these areas. SPC continues a "Marginal Risk" or level 1 of 5. Max temps will still run slightly above normal with upper 70s to mid/upper 80s over the forecast area. The heavy rain threat also increases for locations west of the Hudson River Valley in the late pm into the early night time period as the flow becomes parallel. Soundings look "tall and skinny" with PWATs 1.5-2.0", as the latest NAEFS has PWAT anomalies +1 to +3 STDEVS above normal. Antecedent soil conditions are not wet with high FFG values, but rainfall rates 1-2" with possible training can not rule out, as an isolated flash flood threat exists into the night time period. Another sticky night is expected with lows in the 60s to about 70F. By Monday, the cold front should be near or over most of eastern NY and western New England with additional showers and some thunderstorms. The best chance of any severe t-storm may be close to the I-84 corridor where some heating may occur. The mid and upper level trough axis will be upstream over the central/eastern Great Lakes Region. A drying trend should kick in late in the day from the Capital Region north and west. Clouds and pcpn should hold temps down on Monday...closer to normal or slightly below, as mid 70s to around 80F will be common over the mtns, and upper 70s to mid 80s in the lower elevations. Albany`s normal high is 84F and we should be close to that. A few lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms early Mon night for the mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT, but then some minor relief with dew points falling off into the mid 50s to mid 60s with the cold/cool advection in the wake of the front. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the southern Dacks to mid/upper 60s in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message: - Heat Indices or "Feels-Like" temps may reach the mid 90s to 100F in the major valley areas Tue-Thu. Discussion: The extended actually opens with a dry day or two. High pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley and PA with weak ridging aloft initially. H850 temps will be slightly above normal. Some downsloping off the higher terrain will allow max temps to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in the Hudson River Valley. With dewpoints in the 60s some heat indices or "feels like" temps may get into the mid and upper 90s. Widespread 80s to lower 90s are expected for max temps over the region. The mid and upper level ridge strengthens Tue night into Wed, as the Bermuda High takes control. Some terrain differential heating or "pop-up" thunderstorms may occur south and west of the Capital Region on Wednesday. After lows in the 60s, max temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys again with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dangerous heat indices of 95-100F will be possible, and Heat Advisories may be needed. This does not like the extreme heat that kicked off astronomical summer in June, but it will still be hot and humid. As we look ahead to Thu and Fri...Another hot and humid day is expected Thu, with a muggy morning to kick off the day with lows in the 60s and to lower 70s. Max temps will be similar to Wed on Thu, but diurnally-timed scattered showers and thunderstorms that may be focused by a sfc trough may slightly cool things down. Nonetheless, dangerous heat (heat indices in the mid 90s to lower 100s) is expected in the valleys again and possibly the southern Taconics and NW CT before any scattered convection based on the NBM guidance. A cold front and a wave of low pressure moving along it may bring widespread showers and some strong thunderstorms to close the week, as temps trend closer to normal heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z Sunday...Flying conditions range from MVFR at GFL/POU to IFR at PSF/ALB as of 6:25 AM EDT. THe showers and thunderstorms currently around this morning should dissipate by the start of the 12z TAF period. Expecting low stratus to linger through 14-15z this morning at all terminals with mainly MVFR cigs, although have included a tempo for continued IFR cigs at PSF. Low stratus dissipates by mid to late morning with a return to VFR conditions and SCT to BKN mid-level clouds into the afternoon. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon. Have kept prob 30 groups only at ALB/GFL where confidence is highest in a shower/storm, and kept just VCSH groups at POU/PSF. We did start the prob30 groups an hour earlier compared to the previous TAF based on latest hi-res guidance. Within showers/storms, brief MVFR to IFR vsby reductions expected. Outside of any showers/storms, VFR conditions prevail into tonight. Then, after midnight, low stratus develops once again. Expecting MVFR fuel alternate cigs at ALB/GFL. At POU, IFR cigs also possible, and higher confidence in IFR cigs at PSF with the low stratus. Winds today increase to around 10 kt from the southeast with gusts to 15- 20 kt this afternoon, then diminish to 5-10 kt still from the southeast after sunset. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Main