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851
FXUS61 KALY 250510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Some sunshine Sunday with an isolated
shower possible. A stronger low pressure system is expected to
bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers
lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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.UPDATE...Made some minor adjustments based on current obs.
Otherwise, satellite imagery showing some high level cirrus
clouds moving in from the west, but they look fairly thin and
should not impede cooling once winds become calm in most areas.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0947]...Outside of some patchy clouds across
the SW Adirondacks, skies remain clear. West/northwest winds
remain somewhat gusty across portions of the Berkshires and
southern Greens, where some gusts up to 25 mph remain.
Elsewhere, winds have dropped off considerably from earlier,
generally less than 10 mph.

Temperatures will drop rapidly overnight with clear skies and a
very dry air mass in place, along with decreasing winds. Expect
min temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weakening upper energy in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will
track through our region with a weakening low level cold front
later Saturday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will reach western areas late Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny Saturday morning will become
partly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with some mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and mid 70s higher
terrain.

Any isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
should exit by daybreak Sunday and intervals of clouds and sun
trending to more sun than clouds through Sunday with perhaps an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in areas of terrain with the
weak cold front washing out over our region. Highs Sunday around
80 to mid 80s with upper 70s higher terrain.

Strong upper energy begins to approach from the Great Lakes and
OH Valley. Rapidly increasing warm advection, moisture advection
and low level jet energy will support increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday. Instability should
be marginal and low level forcing very broad, so severe
thunderstorm potential limited but not out of the question since
considerable deep layer shear will be present. Locally heavy
rain may be more of a threat but not expecting enough rain for
much of a flood threat. Highs Monday around 70 to mid 70s with
60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief period of drying Tuesday with the exit of the one upper
impulse but another strong upper impulse in Canada dropping
through the Great Lakes Tuesday night, slowing its movement as
it tracks near or through our region the rest of the week.
There is considerable spread in the track and timing of this
system that would affect our region Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures would be considerable cooler due to the upper low
being overhead, and more clouds than sun, with intervals of
showers, mainly during the day when the upper cold pool would
contribute to instability.

Temperatures Tuesday, with the isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage, in the 70s to around 80 and some upper
60s southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday with the potential
clouds and rain, around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain.
Highs Thursday, with continued chances for rain, in the 60s and
around 60 higher terrain. Highs Friday, with potentially
decreasing coverage of showers, around 70 to mid 70s with mid to
upper 60s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Sunday, VFR conditions are expected through at least
early Saturday afternoon. High/mid level clouds will then
increase from west to east Saturday afternoon, with some showers
possible after 21Z/Saturday. There could even be a few rumbles
of thunder, however enough uncertainty to preclude mention of
thunder at this time.

Gusty west winds 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT will shift into
the northwest to north and quickly decrease to 5-10 KT shortly
after sunset, then become light/variable later this evening
through Saturday morning. Winds will then become south to
southwest at 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL/Wasula