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416
FXUS61 KBGM 100615
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
215 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong. PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Friday as well. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM Update...

An upper level trough is slowly digging into the region with a
shortwave visible on water vapor imagery moving in this
afternoon. The better lift associated with the shortwave is to
our south but a few showers are developing in central PA and
will move into the western Twin Tiers as well as the Finger
Lakes region this afternoon. Tonight, precipitation chances were
kept higher for NEPA as the 250 mb jet strengthens with NEPA
under the right entrance region so there is broad lift with a
bit of elevated instability. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder are likely through the night with the activity slowly
shifting north into tomorrow.

Breaks of sun and clouds similar to today along with better mid
level lapse rates near 6C/km under the trough will help good
instability to develop. MLCAPE approaches 1500 J/kg with SBCAPE
up to near 3000 J/kg. Shear is pretty minimal in the low levels
with very little winds below 700 mb but we do have the 250 mb
jet overhead so there is good shear from 600 mb up to the
equilibrium level. There is also very dry air above 500 mb so
storms tomorrow that get deeper convection may be able to tap
into that elevated shear and strengthen with good lift through
the hail growth zone. The main concern with storms will be hail
and precipitation loading leading to microburst and downburst.
Without the low level shear, it will be tough to develop any
strong mesocyclones but there could be weak supercells that
develop with any persistent deep convection.

With the trough axis swinging through Thursday night, a drier
air mass advects in with surface high pressure. Mostly clear
skies likely leads to the formation of valley fog as we
typically see at this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
215 AM Update...

An upper level shortwave is expected to pass by to the
northwest of the CWA Friday night while a warm front begins to
lift northward. GFS and NAM model soundings are pretty dry and
most model guidance shows pretty dry air in place in the mid
levels, but vary in low- level saturation. NBM loaded in dry but
with the two features in the vicinity, isolated showers cannot
be ruled out, especially through 06Z Saturday, so some slight
chance PoPs were added to the forecast. Lows Friday night will
be in the 60s.

Saturday will be a very warm and humid day with ridging
building in aloft and south-southwesterly flow drawing up plenty
of moisture- rich air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the heating of the day and diminish in
coverage through the evening hours. Highs Saturday range from
the mid 80s to the lower 90s and factoring in dew points that
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s, apparent temperatures in
many of the valleys reach the mid and upper 90s Saturday
afternoon. If this holds, heat headlines may be needed over
portions of CNY. Staying warm and steamy Saturday night with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
215 AM Update...

A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms likely, especially
Sunday afternoon and night. With a very warm, humid environment
still in place, the front will be moving into an area with
plenty of instability with MUCAPE modeled to be anywhere from
1500-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, but shear looks
pretty weak at this time, topping out around 20 knots. PWATs
generally range from 1.50-2.00 inches with the moisture-rich
environment and some guidance hints at a little strengthening
of a low-level jet late Sunday into Sunday evening around the
Finger Lakes region. So while, we`ll have to monitor trends
with regards to any stronger storms, heavy rainfall will be on
the table and WPC does have most of the CWA outside of the
Poconos and southern Catskills under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar
to Saturday in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

There is some uncertainty how quickly the front progresses east
and with the lagging upper trough moving overhead Monday, there
will be a chance of additional showers and storms this day. It
won`t be quite as warm with a west to northwest flow taking
shape with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures look
to rebound quickly though Tuesday and Wednesday with a ridge
building in aloft and high pressure moving in at the surface
leading to drier conditions. High temperatures by midweek are
expected to be back into the mid 80s to low 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period.
Fog is currently impacting ITH and will be possible at ELM and
RME as well, though confidence is lower at RME. Visibilities
will drop into IFR or even LIFR at ITH and ELM while RME should
only fall to MVFR. By 12z, fog should clear out as the terminals
return to VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon. Given the scattered coverage, confidence
was too low to include at any one terminal. If a shower or
storm were to pass over a terminal, then brief restrictions may
be possible. Guidance is hinting at fog again tonight/early
Friday morning, but this was left out for now as visibilities
did not begin to drop until right at the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and variable over the next 24 hours, though
thunderstorms today may have strong gusts.


Outlook...

Thursday night...Restrictions possible with some lingering showers
and thunderstorms around. If a showers and storms hit any
terminals, then fog will also be possible overnight. (Medium
confidence)

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR; pop up showers/storms in
afternoon and evening possible. (Medium confidence)

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions. (Medium confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL