-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
788
FXUS61 KBUF 121834
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moving off the East coast will provide us with fair
dry weather through Thursday...along with a glimpse of warmer
weather to come. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s on
Thursday...then the passage of a cold front Thursday night will
support some showers and possible thunderstorms while putting the
brakes on our warm up for Friday and Saturday. Looking further
ahead...mid summer warmth and humidity is guaranteed for early next
week when apparent temperatures will soar into the 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging will build across the region tonight...and this
will guarantee fair dry weather with moonlit skies giving way to a
bit of cirrus during the wee hours of the morning. It will not be as
cool...particularly over the western counties where mins of 55 to 60
(nr 50 Lewis co) will be some 7-10 deg higher than those of the past
few nights.

Thursday will be noticeably warmer...as sfc based ridging along the
East Coast will circulate H85 temps in the mid teens C across our
forecast area. This will combine with sunshine through high clouds
that will support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s F.
The warm weather will be accompanied by a touch of humidity as well
with many areas experiencing Td`s close to 60.

A slow moving cold front will sag to the south through the area
during the course of Thursday night. This will likely lead to some
showers and possible thunderstorms...particularly east of both
lakes where basin average rainfall could be as high as a
quarter inch. Otherwise...basin average rainfall is forecast to
generally be a tenth of an inch or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest guidance suite generally develops some weak "waviness" along
the main cold front as it tries to push southeast of our area Friday
morning...which slows its progress a little bit and also induces a
brief temporary increase in forcing. In tandem...the above should
allow some showers and a few embedded weak thunderstorms to briefly
re-blossom across the southern Tier/interior Finger Lakes early
Friday morning...before incoming high pressure and drier air helps
to shunt this boundary and its pcpn south of our area through the
remainder of the day. Even with this bit of a delay still expect the
bulk of the area to experience a largely dry afternoon...albeit with
one exception. That will come across the North Country and Saint
Lawrence Valley...where the passage of a secondary shortwave trough/
weak cold front should produce a few more scattered showers/storms
during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise...the cooler and
drier airmass building in behind the front will lead to a general
increase in sunshine...along with highs ranging through the 70s.

The increasingly expansive surface ridge will then strengthen as it
builds across our region Friday night...bringing an end to any
leftover spotty convection across the North Country and leading to a
quiet and tranquil night otherwise. With good radiational cooling
conditions in place...lows will settle back into the upper 40s
across the North Country and interior of the Southern Tier...and
into the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

The surface high will then settle directly across our region on
Saturday...before ever-so-slowly drifting east to eastern New York
and western New England Saturday night. This will provide us with a
spectacular day on Saturday featuring plenty of sunshine...light
winds...and comfortable highs ranging from the upper 60s across the
higher terrain to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Quiet weather will
then continue Saturday night as the high drifts eastward...with lows
again ranging from the mid to upper 40s across the North Country and
interior southern Tier to the mid 50s across the lake plains of far
western New York.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The end of the weekend through the start of next week will feature
building heat and humidity.

A trough diving across the eastern Pacific will support broad
ridging to build across the central and eastern CONUS. Consequently,
persistent southwest low and mid-level flow will advect Gulf of
Mexico heat and humidity into the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great
Lakes Sunday through much of the next week.

Summer like heat will arrive Monday through Wednesday with
temperatures likely reaching the lower 90s across the lower
elevations away from any lake influences due to climbing 850mb
temperatures toward +20 Celsius. While the ridge axis lies across
the region, so will the heat. One of the cooler locations across the
region will be the Buffalo area as persistent southwest winds will
support lake breezes. Otherwise, dewpoints averaging in the mid 60s
to low 70s throughout the start of the week will also support some
notable heat indices for the areas across the Genesee Valley and
into central New York.

A shortwave trough will ripple across the top of the ridge well to
the north of the area, supporting westerlies to persist aloft. This
in addition to the warm temperatures providing an effective cap will
limit the chances for convection Monday through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period.

Sfc winds on Thursday will increase to 15 to 25 knots in most areas
with gusts over 30 knots possible at both KBUF and KIAG.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Friday night through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes resulting in
light winds which will last through tonight.

A cold front will then move across the Lower Great Lakes late
Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead
of the front Thursday, with winds remaining elevated through Friday.
This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes. High pressure will
then build back across the waters with light winds and generally
favorable boating conditions during the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/PP