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948
FXUS62 KILM 161035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will
dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated POPs through this morning as the showers moving onshore
are making it quite far inland, mostly just coastal counties
though. Updated 12Z aviation below.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still
some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller
scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form
along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow
boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy
at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on
fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and
lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda
High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid
levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly
downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in
the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94
to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and
potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will
not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by
to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited
for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps
well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to
continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the
south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see
lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection
over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a
bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low coverage MVFR is hanging around this morning with clouds
around 1.5-2 kft. These may fill in here and there but only
briefly as we head into the afternoon. Showers and storms should
pop up along the sea breeze and migrate inland as per usual with
MVFR CIGs possible and MVFR/IFR VSBYs as rain could be heavy at
times. Winds will increase to ~10 kts this afternoon, closer to
15 kts at the coast. Initial thoughts for tonight is that fog
won`t be an issue and patchy at best if present due to the
overnight breeze lingering. Low stratus may be possible.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in
the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and
6 seconds.

Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up
to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze
near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A
longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop
southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly
more WSW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW