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720
FXUS62 KMHX 111930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level disturbance will move across the region today
bringing scattered showers and storms. High pressure will
ridge into the area Wednesday and Thursday while an area of low
pressure meanders off the Southeast coast. The high pulls
offshore Friday with a cold front pushing across the area
Saturday. High pressure builds in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1515 Tuesday...Forecast is tracking well. First cell to
pop up along the sea/sound/river breeze near Stumpy Point really
took off quickly. RAP shows a range of 1-2kJ/kg of MUCAPE and
given the vertical development and persistence of the first cell
on radar, actual CAPE is probably on the higher end of that
range. Rain chances will continue to expand across the rest of
the sea breeze(s) this afternoon.

An upper trough remains across the Eastern CONUS with a stalled
front around 80-100 mi offshore and a trough of low pressure
across the central piedmont. An embedded shortwave will move
through the flow aloft around mid day which will aid in
triggering isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon. The main focus for storms will be along the sea
breeze as it migrates inland through the afternoon with greatest
chances across the Albemarle/Pamlico peninsula. Steep low level
lapse rates will allow for SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg while
0-6km bulk shear will around 40-50 kt that could help develop a
few stronger storms early to mid afternoon. However, once the
upper trough axis pushes through increasing subsidence aloft
will reduce CAPE through the rest of the afternoon. Temps will
be seasonable with highs in the mid 80s and it will feel
comfortable with dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 50s
away from the coast.

The upper trough will push farther offshore tonight while sfc
high pressure builds into the area. An isolated shower may
linger into the early evening hours but otherwise expect dry
conditions overnight. Clear skies and calm winds could allow for
patchy fog development however ensemble guidance is showing
chances less than impressive probabilities, but considering the
less than stellar performance of guidance with overnight fog
lately, have opted to include patchy fog in the forecast. Lows
will be in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70
coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1515 Tuesday...Dry day on deck with upper level flow
becoming more zonal behind the departing trough aloft, NW
downslope mid level flow bringing drier conditions across the
region with localized SFC high sliding offshore the NC/VA coast
through the period. Have below mentionable PoPs along the
afternoon seabreeze with much less upper level support relative
to today. Highs in the upper 80s most, upper 70s to low 80s
beaches but the lower Tds will make the AppTs a little cooler.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday... Key Points:

- Dry Wednesday Night-Thursday night as high pressure
  dominates.

- Low pressure scales NE`ward off SE coast Friday-Saturday

- Minor heat risk concerns Saturday

- Cold front moves through in the weekend

- Dry start to next week

Wednesday Night and Thursday... Chances for fog Wed night and
Thur night with generally clear skies and calm winds. Highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, low to mid 80s for beaches.
Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday.

Further to our south, a plume of tropical moisture originating in
the Gulf of Mexico will traverse across the FL peninsula
Tuesday into Tuesday night along a shortwave. Wednesday into
Thursday the shortwave is expected to move NE`ward off the
SC/GA/FL coast, where it becomes a bit better organized and a
sfc low develops in between two areas of strong ridging.

Friday through Sunday... Complicated setup in store, with a weak low
meandering off the southeast coast and a cold front sweeping through
the region. Friday the sfc low to our south moves NE`ward,
likely along the gulf stream. Most models are showing the sfc
low far enough offshore for minimal impacts. However, the most
recent (6/11 00Z) GFS run has the low closer to the Crystal
Coast and OBX Friday, resulting in higher precip chances for the
coast and more hazardous marine conditions for our nearshore
coastal waters. Saturday, temps will reach the mid 90s inland,
which combined with Tds in the mid 70s will result in minor heat
risk concerns. Current forecasted ApparentT is near 100 degrees
for inland areas south of hwy 264. A mostly dry cold front
(capped PoPs below 30%) sweeps through the region Saturday and
gives the sfc low to our east a ride off into the Atlantic.
Behind the cold front ridging sets in Sunday, with a quick
hitting back door cold front moving in from the north allowing
Tds to briefly drop to the 60s.

Monday through Tuesday... Strong ridging brings clear skies and
temps getting progressively warmer through early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday AM/...
As of 1330 Tuesday...Pred VFR flight cats expected through the
rest of the day today. However, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon could bring occasional sub-VFR
conditions. Highest chances for storms will be across northern
rtes. Clear skies and calm winds will bring good radiational
cooling conditions but ensemble based guidance continue to show
low probs for fog tonight. Given recent model performance, have
opted to lean more pessimistic and introduced prevailing MVFR
VIS for coastal TAF sites with shorter duration TEMPO groups for
the inland TAF sites where chances are lower.

LONG TERM /Wednesday PM through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...High pressure dominating Wednesday-
Thursday will bring a period of calm winds and clear/mostly
clear skies overnight Wednesday night- Thursday night. This
increases the potential for sub-VFR conditions due to fog,
particularly during the early morning hours.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1530 Tuesday...A cold front remains stalled around 80-100
mi offshore while a trough of low pressure remains across the
central piedmont. Good boating conditions are expected through
the short term with variable winds generally less than 15 kt
with seas around 2-3 ft. NEerly flow early WED 10-15kt becoming
more onshore as seabreeze takes over in the afternoon. Seas
build slightly to 2-4ft with wind chop on top of Serly 6-7sec
swell.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Long term starts off benign, with waves
2-3 ft and easterly winds generally gusting below 15 kts through
Thursday. Friday through the weekend we have a lot of
uncertainty, as the forecast highly depends on how the sfc low
developing off the SE coast over the next 24 hours progresses.
Potential for SCA gusts and elevated seas exists Friday through
Sunday if the sfc low approaches closer to our nearshore waters
or strengthens substantially, but confidence remains too low at
this point. Early next week pleasant boating conditions return,
with waves 2-3 ft and E/SE winds less than 15 kts as high
pressure dominates.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RJ