-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
185
FXUS62 KRAH 111925
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the Ohio River Valley will drift east,
eventually moving offshore by Wednesday night. Friday could be the
hottest day of the year so far before a cold front brings some
cooler temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

Diurnal cumulus is beginning to fill in this afternoon across the
forecast area. Forecast soundings still show a very narrow layer of
saturation occurring late in the afternoon into the early evening
hours. 00Z high-resolution models showed some small areas of
precipitation just skirting eastern Halifax and Edgecombe counties,
and more recent high-resolution models have managed to even trim
that coverage a bit more, keeping precipitation east of the forecast
area. Have decided to keep the minimal pops in the forecast, which
peak during the late afternoon, with any mention of showers/storms
removed from the forecast after sunset. Overnight lows should be
similar to last night, with values ranging from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

A broad surface high will be over the mid-Atlantic states,
continuing to bring an easterly component to the low level wind.
Dewpoints will start to rise a bit, with nearly all locations into
the 60s. There will still be minimal forcing for ascent, so the
forecast remains dry in all locations, although there will likely be
greater coverage of diurnal cumulus clouds during the day. With wind
out of the southeast, highs will creep up a couple degrees on
Wednesday, with all locations in the 80s and a few southern
locations touching the 90 degree mark. Similarly, all locations will
fall in the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

Largely dry weather is expected through this period, with a roller
coaster of temps: hot, then seasonably cool, then above normal again.

Thu/Thu night: The surface frontal zone and any offshore low along
the front will be well to our SE and S, with surface high pressure
centered over the NW Atlantic nosing SW through central NC. Aloft,
very weak/baggy shortwave troughing over NC (as the westerlies hold
well to our N) will give way to rising heights as the ridge over
AZ/NM and N Mex begins to build eastward. We`ll be within a fairly
low PW environment with no opportunity for moisture transport into
the area and increasing stability aloft, so will keep a dry
forecast. Low level thicknesses are just a bit above normal, but
with abundant sunshine (clouds should be limited to sct high-based
flat cu with deep mixing), highs will be near a category above
normal, upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the 60s.

Fri through Sat night: A profound shortwave trough will swing
through the Great Lakes, St Lawrence Valley, and Northeast Fri
through Sat morning, which will drive a corresponding surface cold
front SSE through NC late Fri night through Sat morning. The NBM and
LREF members suggest that our extreme SE could see an afternoon
storm Sat near the front if it slows its progression, and have kept
an isolated thunderstorm risk in the far SE Sat, but even this may
be too high. Fri will be another hot day with above normal
thicknesses and narrowing and weakening surface ridging across the
area plus weak NW flow aloft still limiting prefrontal moisture
transport. Once again, clouds both days should be restricted to a
few high-based afternoon cu and perhaps a few wispy high clouds.
Highs will be in the low-mid 90s across the board, with warm lows
Fri night in the upper 60s to lower 70s, pushing our HeatRisk into
the Moderate category over much of the forecast area, indicating a
health threat for sensitive and vulnerable individuals. The Moderate
HeatRisk shifts to just our southern sections Sat, where highs will
be in the low-mid 90s, versus the upper 80s/near 90 across the N
where the cooler air post-front will arrive earlier. Lows will be
back into the 60s Sat night as less humid and cooler high pressure
builds in from the N.

Sun-Tue: Continued dry with temps rebounding back above normal. The
surface high pressure will shift off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coast Sun and continue to drift E through Tue while extending back
across NC. Gradually increasing onshore flow in the low levels from
the E and SE will bring increasing clouds, mainly across the S and
W, heading into early next week, with a risk of upslope-assisted
precip by the time we get to Tue. Will have dry weather through
early Tue, then just a slight chance in the W Tue afternoon. Expect
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Sun/Mon, then upper 80s-mid 90s
Tue. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Aside from some patchy fog early Wednesday morning, expect
predominately dry, VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Diurnal heating and lift underneath a rather strong mid level
capping inversion will result in the development of an extensive
strato cu field this afternoon, and especially Wednesday. Light
northerly winds today will become south or southeasterly Wednesday.

Outlook: Generally dry fair weather is expected through the weekend,
with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CBL