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605
FXUS62 KRAH 120125
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the Ohio River Valley will drift east,
eventually moving offshore by Wednesday night. Friday could be the
hottest day of the year so far before a cold front brings some
cooler temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 920 PM Tuesday...

Regional radar imagery shows a well defined convectively-enhanced
sea-breeze progressing through the Coastal Plain and into the
Sandhills of NC. The thermodynamic environment over central NC will
remain stable overnight as boundary layer cooling stabilizes and a
stout inversion centered around 700mb remains in place. Bubbling
cumulus at the base of the inversion is expected over the Piedmont
into the Foothills over NC as point sounding show a weak veering
wind profile in the low levels, indicative of WAA. Otherwise, mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies and surface high pressure over northern
Mid-Atlantic settles southeast into the Virginias by Wed morning
will promote pockets of radiational cooling through the overnight
hours. Lows tonight will settle in the low/mid 60s with mid/upper
50s in the typical cool spots in the Piedmont.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

A broad surface high will be over the mid-Atlantic states,
continuing to bring an easterly component to the low level wind.
Dewpoints will start to rise a bit, with nearly all locations into
the 60s. There will still be minimal forcing for ascent, so the
forecast remains dry in all locations, although there will likely be
greater coverage of diurnal cumulus clouds during the day. With wind
out of the southeast, highs will creep up a couple degrees on
Wednesday, with all locations in the 80s and a few southern
locations touching the 90 degree mark. Similarly, all locations will
fall in the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

Largely dry weather is expected through this period, with a roller
coaster of temps: hot, then seasonably cool, then above normal again.

Thu/Thu night: The surface frontal zone and any offshore low along
the front will be well to our SE and S, with surface high pressure
centered over the NW Atlantic nosing SW through central NC. Aloft,
very weak/baggy shortwave troughing over NC (as the westerlies hold
well to our N) will give way to rising heights as the ridge over
AZ/NM and N Mex begins to build eastward. We`ll be within a fairly
low PW environment with no opportunity for moisture transport into
the area and increasing stability aloft, so will keep a dry
forecast. Low level thicknesses are just a bit above normal, but
with abundant sunshine (clouds should be limited to sct high-based
flat cu with deep mixing), highs will be near a category above
normal, upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the 60s.

Fri through Sat night: A profound shortwave trough will swing
through the Great Lakes, St Lawrence Valley, and Northeast Fri
through Sat morning, which will drive a corresponding surface cold
front SSE through NC late Fri night through Sat morning. The NBM and
LREF members suggest that our extreme SE could see an afternoon
storm Sat near the front if it slows its progression, and have kept
an isolated thunderstorm risk in the far SE Sat, but even this may
be too high. Fri will be another hot day with above normal
thicknesses and narrowing and weakening surface ridging across the
area plus weak NW flow aloft still limiting prefrontal moisture
transport. Once again, clouds both days should be restricted to a
few high-based afternoon cu and perhaps a few wispy high clouds.
Highs will be in the low-mid 90s across the board, with warm lows
Fri night in the upper 60s to lower 70s, pushing our HeatRisk into
the Moderate category over much of the forecast area, indicating a
health threat for sensitive and vulnerable individuals. The Moderate
HeatRisk shifts to just our southern sections Sat, where highs will
be in the low-mid 90s, versus the upper 80s/near 90 across the N
where the cooler air post-front will arrive earlier. Lows will be
back into the 60s Sat night as less humid and cooler high pressure
builds in from the N.

Sun-Tue: Continued dry with temps rebounding back above normal. The
surface high pressure will shift off the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coast Sun and continue to drift E through Tue while extending back
across NC. Gradually increasing onshore flow in the low levels from
the E and SE will bring increasing clouds, mainly across the S and
W, heading into early next week, with a risk of upslope-assisted
precip by the time we get to Tue. Will have dry weather through
early Tue, then just a slight chance in the W Tue afternoon. Expect
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Sun/Mon, then upper 80s-mid 90s
Tue. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 753 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue for the 24 hour TAF period as dry high
pressure continues to move across central NC. Light nly flow will go
calm overnight. Sfc flow will turn more esely Wednesday afternoon. A
thicker deck of stratocu is expected to develop Wednesday but
ceilings will remain VFR. northerly winds today will become south or
southeasterly Wednesday.

Outlook: Generally dry fair weather is expected through the weekend,
with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Luchetti/CBL