-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
796
FXUS62 KRAH 101831
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently over the northern Plains will slide
southeast through the week, keeping dry weather across the region.
Hot temperatures will return to the area by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

With the front that moved through the area in the last 24 hours,
moisture values through the atmospheric column have dramatically
dropped - the Sunday evening radiosonde in Greensboro had a
precipitable water value of 1.8" while the Monday morning radiosonde
only measured 0.72". Although there are some diurnal cumulus clouds
around this afternoon, skies should be mostly clear overnight,
except for some passing clouds with an upper level shortwave. Cannot
completely rule out the chance for a shower across southern Sampson
County this evening as higher moisture remains closer to the
coastline. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Another day of cooler temperatures and lower relative humidities.

Weak low pressure will be exiting the mid-Atlantic coast with high
pressure building in from the Midwest Tuesday morning. CAA during
the day will lead to a day with slightly below normal temperatures.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with partly sunny skies. Dew
points and relative humidity values will remain lower than normal,
as well. This will continue the trend of comfortable conditions for
at least this one more day. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM Monday...

The extended starts off quiet with slightly above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 50s
to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the morning but still
tolerable in the afternoon Wednesday. As an upper level ridge moves
across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-Atlantic region mid
week dry weather is expected across our area Wednesday through at
least Friday. Although Friday is expected to be dry across most of
the area a cold front will begin to move in from the OH valley late
Friday night and linger across the region Saturday and Sunday.
Although the initial pass of the front is expected to be dry, it
will get hung up along the eastern portions of NC and increase the
PoPs for the afternoon and early evening Saturday and Sunday. For
now have best chance for precip in the over the SW portion of the
CWA Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty
remains high for Mondays forecast as the disturbance in the Gulf of
Mexico increases chance for storms across the Deep South and
southern Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures during the long term are excepted to be above normal.
Wednesday and Thursday the NW portion of the region is expected to
be in the 80s while else where will creep into the low 90s. Friday
is expected to be the warmest with highs in the low to mid 90s
across the region and apparent temperatures in the upper 90s.
Saturday high temps will be similar to Friday but timing of the
afternoon storms and coverage could result in a slight trend upward
or downward in the temps. Sunday and Monday temperatures fall
slightly with the frontal passage and highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to low 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. Although there are some diurnal cumulus clouds around, much
drier air behind a front should minimize the moisture for any
ceiling/visibility restrictions. Winds should remain around 5 kt
from the northwest.

Outlook: There are no restrictions through the outlook period, with
the next (slight) chance for precipitation coming on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green