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093
FXUS62 KRAH 110215
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1015 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide southeast through the week, keeping dry
weather across the region. Hot temperatures will return to the area
by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1010 PM Monday...

A mid/upper level trough with a couple embedded shortwaves will
progress across the Mid-Atlantic through daybreak. The lead
shortwave is currently moving through north-central VA and
supporting the maintenance of showers and storms through northern
VA. Closer to home near the VA/NC border, altocumulus have become
more widespread and isolated shower development near the Danville
area are supported by cooler 500mb temperatures and up to 500 J/kg
of MUCAPE. Farther south into the Piedmont of NC, 500mb temps are
considerably warmer within the subsidence inversion present which is
limiting the available instability. Isolated showers may be possible
near the VA/NC border into the northern Coastal Plain for the next
few hours as the shortwave swings through.

A second compact shortwave diving south through Ohio Valley will
then pivot across NC overnight into early Tues morning. This second
wave combined with weak instability and meager H5 height falls may
provide enough support for isolated sprinkles, but measurable rain
will be difficult to achieve. Lows tonight will dip into low/mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

A generally quiet day under light northerly flow, with high pressure
moving in from the NW and weak low/troughing along the NC coast. A
mid level shortwave trough will cross the state Tue, and while PW
will be rather low over much of the state, far NE NC will be within
better low level moisture with weak mass convergence just N of a low
center over the central coast/sounds. As the shortwave trough kicks
this low a bit offshore, a portion of the surface high will dip into
NE NC along a subtle backdoor front feature, enhancing convergence
over NE NC. Our extreme NE sections will be close enough to this low
level forcing for ascent to justify an isolated shallow shower risk,
and will include a few hours of slight chance pops for showers in
our extreme NE late Tue. (Lack of both moisture and steep lapse
rates aloft, within the mixed phase region, should limit the thunder
risk in our area, but will monitor this potential.) Otherwise,
expect partly to mostly sunny skies, followed by a fair night with a
some high clouds moving in late. Highs will be close to normals,
from the lower to upper 80s, with slightly cooler than normal lows
in the mid 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

The extended starts off quiet with slightly above normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 50s
to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the morning but still
tolerable in the afternoon Wednesday. As an upper level ridge moves
across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-Atlantic region mid
week dry weather is expected across our area Wednesday through at
least Friday. Although Friday is expected to be dry across most of
the area a cold front will begin to move in from the OH valley late
Friday night and linger across the region Saturday and Sunday.
Although the initial pass of the front is expected to be dry, it
will get hung up along the eastern portions of NC and increase the
PoPs for the afternoon and early evening Saturday and Sunday. For
now have best chance for precip in the over the SW portion of the
CWA Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty
remains high for Mondays forecast as the disturbance in the Gulf of
Mexico increases chance for storms across the Deep South and
southern Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures during the long term are excepted to be above normal.
Wednesday and Thursday the NW portion of the region is expected to
be in the 80s while else where will creep into the low 90s. Friday
is expected to be the warmest with highs in the low to mid 90s
across the region and apparent temperatures in the upper 90s.
Saturday high temps will be similar to Friday but timing of the
afternoon storms and coverage could result in a slight trend upward
or downward in the temps. Sunday and Monday temperatures fall
slightly with the frontal passage and highs are expected to be in
the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 804 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hour TAF period.
Residual cumulus clouds will dissipate over the next few hour. Winds
will remain calm to light overnight. Sfc flow will turn a bit more
nly tomorrow but generally remain under 10 kts. A few isolated sea-
breeze induced showers/storms could approach KRWI late tomorrow
afternoon, but overall, the period should remain dry and VFR.

Outlook: There are no restrictions through the outlook period, with
the next (slight) chance for precipitation coming on Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/Green