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048
FXUS62 KRAH 100621
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast through the area late today. High
pressure will build in from the northwest and north Tuesday through
Wednesday, then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Sunday...

A broken line of pre-frontal showers and a few isolated storms (in
the southern Piedmont) continue to advance ese across central NC
this evening. Outflow associated with this line continues to produce
brief gusts of up to 30 mph (Sanford-Lee County airport (KTTA)
recently observed a 36 mph gust).  While the  strongest instability
is largely shunted to our south, outflow associated with these
showers/isolated storms will continue to generate brief gusts of up
to 30 mph through the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain the next few
hours. This band of precipitation should push east of our area in
early overnight period. However, guidance continues to suggest at
least a chance for some re-development of showers across our far
southern zones near daybreak tomorrow. Otherwise, expect overnight
lows in the lower 60s to around 70 (south).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

...Lingering rain chances across southern NC through early Monday...


The effective, lead cold front is forecast to be well south of the
area by daybreak. However, weak perturbations embedded within the
plume of deeper moist and weak instability lingering across the far
southern zones could support another round/area of post-frontal
convection between 12 to 16z.

Additionally, a shortwave trough pivoting SEwd through the base of
the long wave trough will lead to the development of a secondary
cold front Monday afternoon that will move south across the area
during the evening. Probabilistic guidance indicates non-zero
chances for some isolated showers and with this feature. Otherwise,
it should be drying out by the afternoon and not as hot. Highs
ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

The secondary frontal passage Monday evening will usher in even
cooler and less humid into the area as continental surface high
builds in from the northwest. Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s north
to 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 220 AM Monday...

The extended forecast continues to trend drier, along with hot and
humid conditions for the late week period into at least the first
half of the weekend. The best chance of showers or storms may not be
until the weekend, and even then, chances are low/uncertain.

Wednesday we will see high pressure over the area that will shift
offshore later in the day and largely remain out over the western
Atlantic into at least Sat. Aloft, WNW flow will be in place,
followed by ridging over the central/southern Plains shifting east
into the region by the latter part of the weekend. Somewhat still
comfortable weather Wed in the mid/upper 80s will transition to more
hot and humid weather to close out the week and start Sat with low
to mid 90s as low-level thicknesses rise some 30 m above average.
The NW flow could favor some convective complexes over the Great
Lakes Thu/Fri that could impact the lower OH valley, but with
ridging over us we appear sheltered from this activity. There could
be some diurnal showers/storms late in the week tied to the sea-
breeze or lee surface trough over the Piedmont, but there is not
much deep forcing in the guidance to warrant more than slight
chances at the moment given ridging in place.

Over the weekend, models are in decent agreement that a cold front
could approach late Sat and perhaps linger over the area or move
through Sun. This period would appear our best chance of some
storms, but even then, the front could pass through dry as most of
the mid-level energy remains to our north. For now, have low end
chances for Sat and Sun. The uncertainty with the front Sun limits
confidence on highs, but for now we trended a little lower than Sat
with upper 80s to low 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 128 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will dominate late tonight through Mon, although an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out very late Mon as a second front
approaches the area. Surface winds will remain gusty into tonight,
from the WSW or W shifting to NW after frontal passage.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, with surface high pressure extending over
the area, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett