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FXUS61 KRNK 111609
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1209 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week,
bringing dry weather to the region. Temperatures trend warmer
with upper 80s and 90s possible for highs beginning Thursday.
The next chance of rain may occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and dry today with passing clouds.

2) Cool again tonight.

An upper level low anchored over the northeast shifts farther
away today, taking the troughiness over the Mid Atlantic
offshore by tonight, replacing it by WNW flow. In the meantime,
we remain under the influence of the western edge of the trough
with trailing short wave energy overhead. This will support
passing clouds throughout the day. This morning an area of cold
air stratus over the mountains was starting to break up as dry
air continues to filter in from the NW. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies will give way to more sun by this afternoon, with highs
reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s over the mountains, and the
upper 70s to low 80s over the Piedmont.

Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s to upper
50s, with patchy fog over the mountain and river valleys.

Confidence in the near term forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Warmer than normal temperatures starting Thursday.
3. Mostly a dry forecast.

High pressure will reign supreme through the period. There is a
low chance for some orographic showers to develop along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge of the NW NC mountains late
Thursday afternoon. Any showers will fade around sunset.

Abundant sunshine and increasing heights aloft will bring near
normal temperatures to the area Wednesday, then warmer than
normal Thursday. Thursday`s highs will range in the mid to upper
80s west of the Blue Ridge to the lower 90s east. These
temperatures are 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Summer Pattern Setting Up.

2) Fairly Dry But Afternoon/Evening Chances By Early Next Week For
Storms.

5h pattern this weekend shows a building ridge from the lower MS
Valley into the southeast and mid-Atlantic. Models seem in agreement
on this, but differ on extent of heat that occurs. At the surface
high pressure builds across the northeast and mid-Atlantic Sunday
and with a northeast to east flow will alleviate the heat somewhat.
Temperatures should run close to or just above normal this weekend.

Once the high shifts offshore early next week, models advertise
increasing moisture with a front tracking north of us Monday. There
are some model differences on 5h and 8h heights/temps, but starting
to look like early next week will be more humid with temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Storm chances start increasing as well but will keep it capped
at 30-40 percent mainly across the mountains, with less chance
east.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures increasing next week but
moderate on chance of storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR scattered cloud cover is expected today with high pressure
building in. Light WNW winds will increase to 7 to 10 kts with
occasional gusts up to 15 to 20 kts.

Tonight MVFR or lower patchy fog is possible in the river and
mountain valleys, especially at BLF and LWB.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions
expected through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/SH