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454
FXUS61 KLWX 100747
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
347 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A supporting mid-level trough of low pressure will push across
the region today. High pressure will build over the area tonight
through midweek, leading to dry conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A mid-level trough of low pressure and associated upper level
jet streak will move across the region today. A few showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder could evolve in parts of the region
this afternoon and early evening. The areas that stand a better
chance of encountering one of these showers or a thunderstorm
would be along and south of I-66 this afternoon, then along and
east of I-95 during the early evening. Highs today will be in
the middle 70s in the west to lower 80s in the east.

Dry conditions will ensue tonight with high pressure building
into the region from the west. Lows tonight will be in the
middle 40s in the western mountains to the lower 60s along the
Chesapeake Bay.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday night with
high pressure in control. There will be a weak low and a surface
front across far southeastern Virginia and North Carolina. This
could lead to a slight chance of showers, mainly in our far
southern zones and over to southern Maryland on Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday near average with temperatures middle to upper 70s.
Highs on Wednesday will be warmer but still relatively pleasant
for mid-June with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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This period consists of much warmer conditions including a pair of
days in the 90s. The peak of these above average temperatures occurs
toward the end of the work week. This includes a forecast of 95 to
97 degrees on Friday which would mark the first 95+ degree day of
2024. On average, at the three major airports, the average first 95
degree day occurs during the 3rd to 4th week of June. While a bit
early, it is still within a week or two of this average date.

The forecast is fairly dry although some shower and thunderstorm
chances return on Friday afternoon/evening. An approaching cold
front will interact with a hot and somewhat humid air mass
characterized by heat indices near the century mark. Global models
are not terribly enthused with the rain chances, some of which are
even dry with the frontal passage. However, will maintain the 15-20
percent shower and thunderstorm chances. These could increase once
the system moves into the convective-allowing model realm of the
forecast. In the wake of this front, winds on Saturday shift to
northwesterly. While temperatures remain warm with highs in the
mid/upper 80s, there will be a decrease in humidity given the wind
shift. Surface high pressure stays in control of the forecast for
the weekend which keeps conditions dry.

Global ensemble means raise heights on Sunday into the following
week as an upper ridge settles in. After a weekend in the mid/upper
80s, expect a return to the 90s next week. The Climate Prediction
Center Week 2 forecast supports this continued warming trend.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions for the terminals today. Any quick or isolated
shower that develops near IAD, DCA or BWI could lower ceilings
to 2-3kft or visibility to 4SM. Otherwise, these VFR conditions
are expected to continue tonight through Wednesday night. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots today through Tuesday night. Winds light
and variable Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Expect mainly VFR conditions for Thursday and Friday. However, as a
cold front tracks through the area on Friday evening, some brief
restrictions are possible given the slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Overall winds start off out of the south to southwest
before shifting to westerly late Friday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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No marine hazards expected today through Wednesday night. Winds
northwest around 10 knots today and Tuesday with gusts to 15
knots. Winds less on Wednesday into Wednesday night.

An extended period of south- southwesterly winds is likely for
Thursday through much of Friday. Some southerly channeling
effects are evident in the model output which could support some
advisory- caliber winds Thursday evening into the night, and
again Friday afternoon/evening. A slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns to the waters late Friday with a cold
front.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Anomalies across the waterways have tanked generally falling into
the 0 to 0.50 foot range. Tidal models agree on some snapback
occurring today. Some of the more sensitive tidal sites start to
near (or reach) Action during the higher of the high tide cycles by
Tuesday morning. However, no coastal flooding is anticipated through
Thursday.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...BRO/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO