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294
FXUS61 KRLX 031745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
145 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer with a brief dry spell for tonight and Tuesday, with
chances for a shower or storm in the mountains. Showers and
storms return Wednesday ahead of a cold front on Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Monday...

Weak high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will provide
clearing skies,and calm flow into Tuesday. This conditions will
allow for dense fog development, mainly along the river valleys
during the overnight hours tonight. Any fog will quickly
dissipate by 9 or 10 AM Tuesday morning.

Therefore, expect dry weather conditions tonight and for the
most part Tuesday. The exception will be weak convection
triggered by diurnal heating and available moisture Tuesday
afternoon and evening in and nearby the mountains. Mostly sunny
skies, high humidity and weak southerly flow will allow for a
hot Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
across the lowlands, ranging into the low 70s higher elevations.
Warm and humid night on tap tonight with dense fog developing
mainly along river valleys and temperatures generally in the
lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

Tuesday brings warmer, mainly dry weather, as surface high
pressure gives way to southerly flow, and mid-upper level
ridging crosses. Elevated heat source diurnal convection is
again possible over the mountains.

The first of a series of weak southern stream short wave
troughs ejecting out ahead of a large mid-upper level system
over the west-central portion of the continent may bring showers
and thunderstorms into the area as early as overnight Tuesday
night, with a slight chance depicted. The greater likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening, as the second in the series of
short waves crosses in concert with diurnal heating.

Despite the favored timing, clouds and showers early in the day
limit heating, and 0-6/0-8 km bulk shear is forecast in the
15-25 kt range, perhaps climbing above 30 kts after sunset
Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could be strong Wednesday
afternoon amid 2500-3500 J/Kg surface-based CAPE well through
the hail growth layer, with the equilibrium level all the way up
around h15, but severe weather potential is low unless we could
realize better shear before sunset.

PW values climb to the neighborhood of 1.75 inches Wednesday
afternoon, about as high as it gets in this area this time of
year, so heavy downpours are also possible, with a local high
water threat wherever heavier thunderstorms hit urban or other
low lying, sensitive areas.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases west to east after
sunset Wednesday night, particularly as one last southern
stream short wave and a surface trough/weak cold front cross.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures, with
negligible if any cooling with the trough/frontal passage
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

The cold front will be traversing the area early Thursday, but
shower/thunderstorm chances will remain through the day as it
crosses. Only a few isolated showers or a stray storm remains
possible Thursday, as the atmosphere appears to be capped with
drier air intruding as this front passes. Was not keen to cut
PoPs Thursday afternoon though with temperatures projected to
be in the upper 70s and 80s for a large chunk of the area, still
any pop-up activity will be short-lived and not of any
significance. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon
behind this front, especially across the ridges.

The pattern then looks to remain not quite as warm, with
diurnal precipitation chances through the weekend as a behemoth
of an upper-level low drops out of Canada and remains just
north of the area. Several shortwaves look to move through the
upper-level pattern this weekend allowing for chance PoPs each
afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will fall from
seasonable upper 70s and 80s down into the 70s across the
lowlands, with the mountains staying in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Monday...

Abundant cloudiness has diminished afternoon heating some,
delaying development of afternoon convection. Expect VCTS to
develop at CRW, HTS, EKN and BKW after 19Z. Can not ruled out a
showers or storm affecting central and eastern sites through
this evening. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions under
heavier showers or storms. Any convection will die off around
sunset.

Guidance suggests skies may clear tonight along with near calm
winds. This will allow for dense fog formation mainly along
river valleys during the overnight hours. Any dense fog will
quickly dissipate by 13Z Tuesday morning.

Winds will remain light from the south, becoming calm tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions may vary from the forecast
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ