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536
FXUS61 KRLX 070208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1008 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold frontal passage promotes scattered showers tonight.
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 630 PM Thursday...

Have made some adjustments to the chances of precipitation for
the next several hours based on current radar trends.


As of 630 PM Thursday...

Have adjusted chances of precipitation this afternoon and
evening to account for the showers that are forming further
south than originally anticipated.


As of 217 PM Thursday...

Another cold front arrives this evening promoting afternoon and
evening showers or storms. The environment remains relatively
unstable this evening to sustain showers and weak storms through
midnight. However, any storm could produce a localized downpour and
cause minor flooding issues.

Dry weather conditions follow for the rest of tonight into Friday as
a weak high pressure builds in. Local soundings show very dry air
aloft, perhaps resulting in mostly clear skies late overnight into
Friday. This will allow for dense fog formation due to near calm
winds, clear skies and antecedent precipitation overnight tonight
into Friday morning. However, H850 winds remains about 20 knots.
These winds may produce some ventilation, limiting dense fog over
protected areas and river valleys. Dry weather will prevail on
Friday with widespread VFR conditions under diminishing west northwest
flow.

Tonight`s temperatures will still be warm, around 60 degrees across
the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Highs
on Friday will be not as warm this afternoon. Generally in the upper
70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s higher elevations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

An upper-level low will pass eastward from the Great Lakes to New
England Saturday, but the bulk of the energy will remain well north
of our region. Therefore, we should remain largely dry and sunny
Saturday with temperatures slightly below average for early
June. The air should feel comfortably cool with a northwest wind
in the postfrontal airmass. Another upper- level wave will dive
southward into our region on Sunday, which will reintroduce
thunderstorm chances and mostly cloudy skies for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Once again, Sunday`s highs will be near
to slightly below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

Daily chances of pop-up thunderstorms will continue Monday and
Tuesday with waves of vorticity flowing along the upper-level
trough. Cooler than average weather will continue Monday and Tuesday
due to lower heights aloft. Another ridge will build in from the
west on Wednesday, which will mark the return of highs in the 80s.
Most places should remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, but a few
pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Thursday...

A cold front will move through the area this evening, with some
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. No restrictions
are expected outside of the showers/thunderstorms.

Thinking that winds behind the front and some lingering clouds
will prevent fog from forming, but can`t completely rule out
fog, especially in the mountain valleys that receive some
evening rainfall.

Outside of any fog early Friday morning, VFR conditions can be
expected for the rest of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not form late tonight/early
Friday, mainly in the mountain valleys.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY