Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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100 FXUS65 KABQ 041747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Heat with highs in the 100s continues at Roswell today, spreading to other lower elevation areas in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern NM Wednesday and Thursday and persisting to Saturday. This includes the ABQ metro area Thursday. Heat induced illnesses will be a main concern for those unable to get out of the heat each day. Increased moisture enters eastern NM Wednesday morning, allowing for an afternoon thunderstorm or two along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Thunderstorm coverage steadily expands mainly along and east of the Rio Grande Valley Thursday and through the weekend. Any storms developing along and west of the central mountain chain will mostly be dry in nature. High temperatures finally back down from the 100s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A band of cirrus stretching from central NM northeastward across the Front Range denotes an upper level trough axis crossing the southern Rockies this morning. Fast northwest flow aloft in the wake of this trough axis can be seen by widespread high clouds surging southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners. Northwest winds will trend stronger today across central and western NM with many areas gusting to between 25 and 35 mph by early afternoon. Weak moisture advection in this pattern will allow surface dewpoints to rise and minimum humidity will not be as desiccating as the past two days. Thicker patches of high clouds will help to keep max temps near Monday`s values for central and western NM. The forecast max today of 104F at Roswell is only 1 degree shy of a `Heat Advisory` again. If clouds clear for longer than anticipated we may reach 105+. Nonetheless, it will still be very hot for a 3rd day in a row so folks are encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid heat- related illnesses. Meanwhile, a north to northeast wind shift will enter northeast NM this afternoon along a moist, backdoor cold front. Abundant moisture that has been pooling over the TX/OK panhandle the past several days will surge southwestward into eastern NM behind this front tonight. Several CAMs, including the HREF, show a small area of storms firing up along the boundary late this afternoon and evening near the TX/NM border of northeast NM. Global models and several other CAMs do not initiate storms later today which limits forecast confidence. If convection does strengthen along the boundary then moisture will get a stronger push southwestward into eastern NM tonight. A light gap wind may develop in the RGV with moisture advection westward as far west as the Cont Dvd (based on the latest NAM3km). If there is no convection then the front will move more slowly to the west and potentially not even reach the central mt chain. The westward extent and depth of the moisture will have implications on max temps across eastern NM on Wednesday. There will still be a slight cooling trend behind the boundary and confidence is high that Roswell will remain below 105F. An upper level ridge building over AZ and western NM during this period will allow max temps to trend much warmer over western NM. This upper ridge along with potential moisture and weak convergence along the central mt chain and nearby highlands may lead to some terrain dominated storms by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The ridge of high pressure builds to 594dm by Thursday, squarely placed over NM as higher low-level moisture remains across eastern NM. There are notable discrepancies in MOS guidance regarding high temperatures Thursday for eastern NM, specifically with the NAM MOS pushing more Gulf moisture into eastern NM compared to the GFS and ECMWF, resulting in a 99F forecast at Roswell. The drier GFS and ECMWF MOS solutions advertise 107 and 106 at Roswell. Continued to take a compromise between these two scenarios and kept Roswell just below Heat Advisory threshold at 104. Meanwhile, went with the warmer solutions for areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley given the high confidence low moisture scenario for this area. The ABQ Sunport has a forecast high of 98, with valley areas along the Rio Grande reaching 100. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will favor the east slopes of the central mountain chain and a surface convergent boundary draped west to east over northeastern NM. Any isolated high based storms through west- central NM will be dry in nature. Outflow from storms across eastern NM will try to push low-level moisture westward further into the Rio Grande Valley. This will yield an expansion of scattered dry and wet thunderstorms along and east of the Rio Grande Valley Friday afternoon. Saturday sees another round of this basic weather pattern as the 592dm ridge of high pressure remains centered over NM and low level moisture remains mostly along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Thereafter, the GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave perturbation sliding over the apex of the ridge that sends down a backdoor frontal boundary into eastern NM. The ridge itself is also breaking down with the approach of an upper low over the northern Baja. Increased moisture across the eastern plains behind the frontal boundary and lowering pressure heights results in a 5 to 8 degree drop in high temperatures areawide Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage mainly along and east of the Rio Grande Valley will depend on how close the aforementioned upper low over the northern Baja tracks into the Desert Southwest. A closer approach would bring further diffluence aloft aiding the development of more convection and thunderstorms. If this is the case, Sunday has the potential to see the most widespread thunderstorm activity of the forecast period. But will have to wait and see how these various features lineup with each other. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Disturbance migrating along the CAN/US border will allow for increased bands of cirrus to persist. Gusty nwly winds will be common across most terminals this aftn, with gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds across the ern plains will shift nly as a boundary descends through the late afternoon and evening, turning ely as the boundary surges wwd. The increase in moisture may create lower cigs across the ern plains to the east slopes of the central mts. Ely gap winds may develop at KABQ aft 05/08Z but are not expected to become strong. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Northwest winds will strengthen today with the strongest gusts from near Farmington to Albuquerque and Clines Corners. These speeds will intersect marginally critical humidity between 12 and 15% along with hot temperatures. Low level moisture is expected to shift westward into eastern NM tonight. This moisture may help develop a few late day showers and storms near the central mt chain. Some dry lightning is possible depending on how deep the moisture increases over the area. An upper level ridge will build into western NM Wednesday then move directly over the state Thursday and Friday. Moisture beneath this ridge may allow terrain-dominated showers and storms to develop each afternoon. A mixture of wet/dry activity is expected over western NM with the best chance for wetting rainfall along and east of the central mt chain. Temps will be very hot thru the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 85 41 90 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 83 50 88 55 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 86 46 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 82 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 86 47 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 83 51 89 55 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 86 60 89 63 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 82 56 88 59 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 90 46 95 50 / 0 0 5 5 Glenwood........................ 92 62 98 64 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 79 44 84 49 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 82 59 85 63 / 0 0 10 0 Pecos........................... 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 49 82 53 / 0 5 10 0 Red River....................... 73 43 76 48 / 0 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 39 80 42 / 5 5 10 0 Taos............................ 85 46 89 51 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 83 49 83 53 / 0 5 10 0 Espanola........................ 91 55 94 58 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 58 86 62 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 55 91 60 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 62 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 61 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 63 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 95 57 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 93 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 56 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 93 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 89 61 92 65 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 62 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 97 64 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 58 85 61 / 0 0 10 0 Tijeras......................... 87 57 89 61 / 0 0 10 0 Edgewood........................ 88 54 89 57 / 0 0 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 51 91 53 / 0 0 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 84 54 85 58 / 0 0 10 0 Mountainair..................... 87 55 89 58 / 0 0 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 55 89 58 / 0 0 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 92 62 95 65 / 0 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 85 58 86 61 / 0 0 30 5 Capulin......................... 81 51 85 55 / 5 5 10 0 Raton........................... 87 51 89 54 / 5 5 10 0 Springer........................ 88 53 90 56 / 5 5 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 53 85 56 / 0 5 10 0 Clayton......................... 87 58 91 62 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 88 55 88 59 / 10 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 95 61 95 65 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 93 61 91 63 / 0 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 96 61 95 66 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 64 95 66 / 0 5 0 5 Portales........................ 99 64 96 65 / 0 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 97 63 95 66 / 0 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 104 70 101 71 / 0 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 95 63 94 63 / 0 0 20 5 Elk............................. 94 60 92 61 / 0 0 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...12