335
FXUS65 KABQ 170810
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot with breezy south to southwest winds and elevated to critical
fire weather conditions through Tuesday. Moisture increases across
eastern NM behind a backdoor front Wednesday resulting in the return
of shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening. Storm
outflow and higher moisture push through the central mountain chain
Wednesday evening bringing a strong east canyon wind to Albuquerque
and Santa Fe Metro Wednesday evening. Higher moisture makes it all
the way to the Arizona border come Thursday. This higher moisture
along with the remnants of a tropical wave will bring better chances
for shower and storms areawide Thursday and Friday. Flash flooding
will be possible on recent burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An upper level trough/low moving east across the Great Basin and
will steer stronger westerly winds over the area and bring a
deepening lee side trough, leading to breezy to windy conditons by
afternoon. Another hot day is forecast, with high temperatures above
normal most areas. Roswell overachieved yesterday and tied a daily
record at 107 degrees. Downslope winds will help boost Roswell`s
high temperatures another degree today, with 108 forecast and a Heat
Advisory in effect. The latest NAM is showing convective initiation
along the TX border late this afternoon, where the SPC has a
marginal risk for severe storms. Any convection that develops will
move quickly east into TX, but there will be a window of a few hours
late this afternoon into the early evening hours when storms could
impact locales such as Clovis and Portales. Westerly winds aloft
will become more southwesterly Tuesday and trend down as the upper
level trough/low ejects northeast out of the northern Rockies. Deep
layer mixing will lead to strong wind gusts by late afternoon
Tuesday, but winds will be notably less than today`s. Any convection
that develops will be isolated near the TX border once again, but
the capping inversion will be difficult to overcome. Another Heat
Advisory is likely for the Chaves County plains Tuesday, with
Roswell forecast to hit a high of 105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As a shortwave within the larger scale upper level trough over
the northern Rockies exits northeast to the northern Great Plains
Tuesday night, it will send a weak backdoor front with higher
moisture behind it into northeast NM. A stray shower/storm could
develop along the backdoor front in far northeast NM early
Wednesday morning. Simultaneously, southeast return flow on the
southwest flank of high pressure centered over the northeast U.S.
will push higher Gulf moisture from Texas west into southeast and
east central NM. Upslope flow and higher moisture across the east
slope of the central mountain chain will result in the development
of some showers and storms. However, models vary on the coverage
of showers and storms with the GFS more bullish and the ECMWF and
NAM depicting less. This could be due to the subsidence ahead of
the tropical wave axis over central Texas. Elsewhere, breezy south
to southeast winds will be present across central NM including
ABQ due to the strong moisture/density gradient along the central
mountain chain (much lower moisture west of the central mountain
chain and higher moisture east of the central mountain chain).
Outflow from any storm activity across eastern NM, strengthening
southeast flow on the western flank of the upper high and higher
moisture from the tropical wave over Texas will help finally push
a strong east canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain
chain through the ABQ and Santa Fe metros Wednesday evening. The
GFS guidance has east winds at KABQ peaking at 33 kts with the
initial push while ECMWF guidance has around 25 kts with that
initial push. A strong east canyon wind is definitely possible due
to the high moisture difference on either side of the central
mountain chain. Ensemble and deterministic models agree in Gulf
moisture pushing all the way to eastern AZ come Thursday morning.

There is slightly better agreement regarding the track of the
tropical wave over Texas late week. Most deterministic and ensemble
guidance now have the western flank of the upper high over the south
central US. The deterministic ECMWF is an outlier with the western
flank a little further west, but overall it looks like the wave
moves along the Rio Grande and Texas/Mexico border Thursday. Higher
cloud cover and moisture spread west into eastern NM. This higher
cloud cover and thus cooler temperatures (10 to 20 degrees below
average) could help to limit instability for the development of
heavier rainfall producing storms and thus result in more widespread
rainfall with embedded storms late Thursday into Friday. Lower
rainfall rates would be better for the HPCC/ McBride and Blue 2 burn
scars. Elsewhere some convective storms will be possible across
western and north central NM Thursday and Friday afternoon and
evening due to being of the western edge of the higher moisture
combined with weak disturbances embedded aloft in the southwest flow
ahead of a baggy trough over southern CA. A new center of the upper
high develops over the state come the weekend. However, mid and low
level moisture will remain under the ridge resulting in diurnal
showers and storms first over the higher terrain before spreading to
lower elevations through outflow boundaries. Rainfall rates will
probably be greater for the weekend storm activity due to warmer
temperatures and higher instability as a result. Thus, chances for
burn scar flash flooding will probably increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with a couple of possible exceptions. Brief MVFR
conditions in thunderstorms are possible near the TX border Monday
afternoon and may impact KTCC. Return flow across the eastern
plains currently is resulting in gusty southeast winds, which are
forecast to diminish closer to sunrise. Stronger southwest winds
are forecast to develop across much of the area Monday afternoon,
with frequent gusts to between 30-35kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON...

An upper level trough moving east across the Intermountain West will
steer stronger westerly winds aloft over the region today and bring
a deepening lee side trough, leading to windy conditons with a hot,
dry and unstable airmass in place. Added the Upper Rio Grande Valley
to the Red Flag Warning for today, where the forecast of critical
fire weather conditions have trended up from the previous forecast
cycle. Winds will trend down Tuesday, but a hot, dry and unstable
airmass will persist. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will be
relegated to western NM on Wednesday as the combination of a
backdoor front and Gulf moisture bring higher humidity and chances
for wetting storms to areas along/east of the central mountain
chain. Moisture will progress west across the area Wednesday night
and set the stage for a rounds of wetting storms going through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  90  48  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  51  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  91  49  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  90  51  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  92  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  88  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  91  45  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  96  59  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  81  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  88  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  87  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  82  47  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  75  45  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  79  39  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  89  48  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  85  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  94  57  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  90  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  94  58  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  65  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  63  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  64  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Belen........................... 100  59  98  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  97  64  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  58  98  59 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  98  62  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  99  59  98  59 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  94  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  97  65  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 100  64  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  59  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  91  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  53  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  89  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  91  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  91  57  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  94  64  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  89  59  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  90  54  90  52 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  94  53  91  54 /   0   0   0   5
Springer........................  96  55  93  55 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  89  55  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  97  64  95  60 /   0   0   5  10
Roy.............................  94  60  92  58 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  99  66  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  98  63  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari....................... 100  67  99  65 /   0  10   5   5
Clovis..........................  98  66  97  66 /  20  10  10  10
Portales........................  99  67  98  67 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Sumner..................... 101  67 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 108  69 105  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  99  63  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  95  60  93  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ101-105-109-121-123.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11