Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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284 FXUS65 KABQ 061741 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Intense heat will take hold of the entire region today with record high temperatures possible in a few areas. Folks are encouraged to take the necessary precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses. Heat is one of the leading weather-related killers in the United States. A few gusty showers and storms may develop over portions of eastern NM later this afternoon. Wind gusts may exceed 50 mph with brief rain and areas of blowing dust. High temperatures will cool a degree or two Friday and Saturday but it will remain very hot. Even greater coverage of showers and storms with strong winds, brief rain, and blowing dust is expected on Friday and Saturday. A significant influx of moisture may arrive Sunday and Monday with the potential for more widespread showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also cool closer to normal for early June by Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast early this morning, ushering in gusty north winds. Initially, the airmass won`t be more moist than the one currently in place, but moisture advection will occur late morning into the afternoon as surface winds turn more easterly. Meanwhile, a 592dm high will shift directly over central NM this afternoon. Subsidence of this dry airmass will help temperatures climb to the highest values of the season thus far and threaten record highs in many areas. The ABQ Sunport may have its 2nd earliest 100F day on record, but probabilistic guidance suggests this is unlikely (<15% chance). Regardless, it will be very hot and the risk of heat related illness will be high for most lower elevation locations. Despite subsidence from the ridge, models are indicating that isolated convection will develop over the high terrain and in eastern NM during the afternoon hours. Inverted V soundings and DCAPE upwards of 1200J/kg suggests the potential for dry microbursts over the western and northern mountains. Some wetting rainfall is possible in the east-central plains during the evening hours, but only a few hi-res models are hinting at this. In the absence of strong westerly winds, the surface moisture across eastern NM will have no problem sloshing to the west through the gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday night. A few strong gusts are possible in east Albuquerque and near Santa Fe as it spills into the Rio Grande Valley, but the relatively weak sfc pressure gradient does not suggest persistent sustained winds. This moisture will provide the fuel for more scattered convection on Friday afternoon. Once again, dry microbursts are possible as storms move to the east/northeast off the high terrain into the lower elevations during the late afternoon/evening hours. Short-lived convective showers and storms will be capable of producing wind gusts upwards of 60mph everywhere, including along the Rio Grande Valley. While 500mb heights will be similar to Thursday`s, slightly higher dewpoints and increased cloud cover will keep temps a few degrees below Thursday`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 High-based showers and storms across central and eastern NM Friday evening will taper off thru midnight with widespread debris clouds lingering thru Saturday morning. Min temps will be around 10 to 15F above normal for early June with a lack of radiational cooling after near-record heat. These early morning warm temps will set the stage for another very hot day with near-record highs once again Saturday. A 591dm H5 high centroid will still be centered over central NM, which is a tad weaker than previous days. A weak shortwave trough moving thru central CO on the northern periphery of this upper high will provide lift for showers and storms over the northern mts and northeast NM by Saturday afternoon. Inverted-V soundings are still expected with high DCAPE and thus potential for more strong downburst wind gusts. The aforementioned shortwave trough will trigger a large cluster of storms from the Front Range into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles Saturday night. Much deeper moisture in this area will be forced southwest into northeast NM along a potent convective outflow. A significantly better influx of moisture expected over eastern NM for Sunday will set the stage for greater coverage of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall, especially from the Sangre de Cristo Mts eastward across the plains. Storm motions will be slow given the proximity of the H5 high center. Convection that fires up over the region Sunday may develop into a more organized area of rainfall Sunday night as a well-defined upper level wave drifts northeast into NM from AZ. Forecast confidence decreases Monday given uncertainty with the evolution of the upper level wave drifting thru the southern Rockies. Models have been all over the place with this wave while low level moisture continues to slosh back and forth across the eastern half of NM thru Tuesday. The greater certainty is that max temps will fortunately trend much cooler and there will be at least some chances for showers and storms over parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A backdoor front will be in place across northeast NM, somewhere near KTCC extending northwest along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, with easterly surface flow in place northeast of this boundary. Some mid level moisture will allow some virga showers and dry storms to develop in the southwest and central high terrain this afternoon with the main hazard being gusty and erratic winds of up to 50 kts near KAXX and KLVS. Additionally, outflow from the storms in the TX panhandle along the backdoor front could produce some gusty and erratic winds of up to 45 kts near KTCC this evening. Well above normal to near record temperatures this afternoon will make density altitude a consideration for aviation operations. Low confidence in the strength of the east wind at KABQ and KSAF mid tonight due to the conditional threat of storms across the TX panhandle. Some LLWS possible across far east central NM including KTCC mid tonight through sunrise tomorrow at FL020, but guidance has it just under the 40 kt threshold at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Isolated, mostly dry, showers and storms will favor the high terrain and east-central plains this afternoon. Increasing moisture will result in more scattered convective activity tomorrow, with a mix of dry and wet storms expected. Gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph are possible with any convection that develops both today and tomorrow. The chance of wetting rainfall increases Sunday and Monday as deeper moisture arrives into the area. RH recoveries will trend better during this time frame as well. This combined with the absence of strong westerly winds will keep critical fire weather conditions at bay through at least the next 7 days. In addition, very hot temperatures will result in an increased risk of heat related illness through the weekend. Heat risk will be greatest today and tomorrow as highs soar to 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 97 59 96 / 0 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 47 92 48 90 / 0 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 54 90 55 89 / 0 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 49 93 50 92 / 0 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 54 88 56 88 / 5 30 20 5 Grants.......................... 51 92 52 92 / 0 30 20 5 Quemado......................... 57 89 57 88 / 10 40 20 10 Magdalena....................... 64 90 65 90 / 5 40 30 20 Datil........................... 61 87 61 87 / 10 50 30 20 Reserve......................... 49 93 48 92 / 10 40 20 10 Glenwood........................ 66 98 65 95 / 10 30 20 20 Chama........................... 47 85 49 85 / 0 10 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 90 64 89 / 0 20 20 20 Pecos........................... 56 89 59 89 / 10 30 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 85 52 85 / 5 20 20 40 Red River....................... 45 80 47 78 / 10 30 20 50 Angel Fire...................... 35 83 40 82 / 5 20 10 40 Taos............................ 52 91 52 91 / 5 20 10 30 Mora............................ 49 87 53 86 / 10 30 10 40 Espanola........................ 60 96 61 96 / 0 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 62 91 63 91 / 5 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 95 62 94 / 5 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 70 96 / 0 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 98 68 98 / 0 10 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 100 67 99 / 0 10 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 98 67 98 / 0 10 20 5 Belen........................... 60 100 63 99 / 0 20 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 64 99 67 100 / 0 10 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 59 100 63 98 / 0 10 20 5 Corrales........................ 62 99 64 99 / 0 10 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 59 100 62 99 / 0 20 20 5 Placitas........................ 65 96 67 96 / 0 10 20 10 Rio Rancho...................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 10 20 5 Socorro......................... 68 100 69 100 / 5 20 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 89 64 90 / 0 20 20 10 Tijeras......................... 60 93 63 92 / 0 20 20 10 Edgewood........................ 57 93 61 93 / 0 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 94 55 94 / 5 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 55 89 58 90 / 5 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 59 91 60 91 / 5 20 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 91 59 92 / 5 20 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 93 / 10 20 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 86 61 85 / 10 50 30 40 Capulin......................... 54 89 56 85 / 10 40 20 60 Raton........................... 54 92 55 91 / 10 30 10 60 Springer........................ 55 93 56 92 / 10 40 10 60 Las Vegas....................... 55 90 57 89 / 10 30 20 40 Clayton......................... 60 96 65 91 / 10 20 20 30 Roy............................. 58 92 62 91 / 10 30 20 40 Conchas......................... 62 101 67 100 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 63 97 65 98 / 10 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 63 102 67 102 / 20 10 20 10 Clovis.......................... 67 100 68 101 / 30 5 20 5 Portales........................ 65 101 67 102 / 20 5 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 66 100 67 102 / 10 10 20 5 Roswell......................... 73 103 73 106 / 5 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 65 96 65 96 / 10 40 20 30 Elk............................. 61 94 62 92 / 10 40 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-220-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...71