757
FXUS63 KABR 302326
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will occur east of the James River
  Valley late this afternoon and this evening. A few of the storms
  could be severe across east central South Dakota during the
  evening, with brief strong wind gusts and quarter size hail being
  the main threats.

- There is a 50-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible.

- Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal this weekend into
  next week (highs in the 80s).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Just minor adjustments to POPs and sky cover with this line of
weak convection.

See below for update to the aviation discussion...


&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The upper level pattern will feature the southern portion of a
trough sliding across the Northern Plains tonight and Friday, before
a more zonal flow sets up Friday night. The strongest energy with
the trough will track across north central South Dakota Friday
afternoon.

At the surface, a frontal boundary currently situated just east of
the James River Valley will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development during the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours as it continues to track eastward. MUCAPE values
increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range across east central South
Dakota during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Bulk shear
will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range, but cannot rule out a
strong to possibly severe thunderstorm or two. Quarter size hail and
brief strong wind gusts would be the main threats. The front, and
the associated precipitation, exit the region to the east by
midnight, with dry conditions expected overnight. For the most part,
conditions also look dry Friday and Friday night, but with the
aforementioned upper wave tracking across the area, cannot rule out
a few light rain showers. Chances are pretty low, so will keep POPs
generally below 30 percent.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures on Friday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows
Friday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Zonal flow Saturday sets the region up for mostly quiet and
seasonable weather. Shortwave energy starts perturbing the flow
Saturday night, but seems, for the moment at least, to be centered
more over southeast SD. So, can`t completely rule out a shower or
thunderstorms in the east, but much of it seems confined farther
south. The potential for strong to severe storms increases on Sunday
as a front charges across the area in the afternoon and evening. SPC
has already plastered 15% probs for severe over parts of the region,
especially the east.

The region remains between systems on Monday with increasing
southerly winds. Another front with an associated strong upper low
moves through the Dakotas on Tuesday. While the main part of the
system appears to stay north, that trailing cold front is a concern
as a potential focus for convection. The accompanying strong caa
looks transient with a quick brush Tuesday night before upper
ridging and waa rebound highs back into the 80s on Wednesday.

High pressure builds over the northern Plains Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Convection close to the KATY
terminal will last for another hour or so.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Connelly