Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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860 FXUS63 KABR 282314 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 614 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southeast winds will increase on Wednesday, with gusts of 25-45 mph. The strongest gusts will occur across central South Dakota. - There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday. A few storms could be strong to severe late Wednesday night west of the Missouri River. && .UPDATE... Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 No changes to the forecast See below for update to the Aviation discussion && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Upper level ridging has begun to build over the region, and will be the dominant upper feature tonight through Wednesday evening, before a shortwave trough begins to move in during the overnight hours. At the surface, high pressure currently over the area will remain in place tonight before sliding east of the CWA on Wednesday ahead of low pressure tracking across the Rockies. Will see a tightening pressure gradient during the day Wednesday, with southeasterly winds increasing into the 15 to 30 mph range during the late morning and afternoon hours. The strongest winds gusts will occur across central South Dakota in the afternoon, where some gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible. The low to the west and its associated frontal boundary will reach western South Dakota Wednesday evening, then to about the Missouri River during the overnight hours. Some weak instability (less than 500 J/kg) will accompany the front, but the best shear (40 to 55 knots) will lag behind the front and stay west of the CWA during the overnight hours. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the areas just west of the Missouri River during this time, but better chances will be west of the CWA. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s, though a few locations west of the Missouri River may exceed 80 degrees. Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with a frontal boundary moving eastward across the region with an upper level trough off to the west. A few showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning west of the James River Valley. As the LLJ does fade during the mid morning hours, with showers and storms dissipating some. Convection may redevelop along and east of the James River during the afternoon hours. Convection should push east of the CWA between 0-3Z Friday, with mostly dry conditions until at least 12Z Friday. A trailing shortwave embedded within the trough axis may provide another round of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the western CWA. Some deterministic models suggest limit pcpn with the trailing shortwave with mostly dry condition remaining across the CWA until Sunday afternoon. However, model differ overall with additional chances of pcpn, with the NBM remaining maintaining pops (20-40) on Friday night into Saturday morning. A surface low pressure system and upper level trough should cross the region Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The storm system will bring the next best chance for pcpn, with the NBM showing a 40 to 65 percent chance. Modest instability and shear ahead of the frontal boundary may set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the James River. There is a potential for mid level capping, especially if 700 mb temps reach +9C, or above the 90th percentile. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals. North northeast winds gradually shift to southeasterly and increase through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Connelly