Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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568 FXUS63 KABR 310514 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1214 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. - Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal this weekend into next week (highs in the 80s). && .UPDATE... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Just minor adjustments to POPs and sky cover with this line of weak convection. See below for update to the aviation discussion... && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The upper level pattern will feature the southern portion of a trough sliding across the Northern Plains tonight and Friday, before a more zonal flow sets up Friday night. The strongest energy with the trough will track across north central South Dakota Friday afternoon. At the surface, a frontal boundary currently situated just east of the James River Valley will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development during the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours as it continues to track eastward. MUCAPE values increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range across east central South Dakota during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Bulk shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range, but cannot rule out a strong to possibly severe thunderstorm or two. Quarter size hail and brief strong wind gusts would be the main threats. The front, and the associated precipitation, exit the region to the east by midnight, with dry conditions expected overnight. For the most part, conditions also look dry Friday and Friday night, but with the aforementioned upper wave tracking across the area, cannot rule out a few light rain showers. Chances are pretty low, so will keep POPs generally below 30 percent. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Zonal flow Saturday sets the region up for mostly quiet and seasonable weather. Shortwave energy starts perturbing the flow Saturday night, but seems, for the moment at least, to be centered more over southeast SD. So, can`t completely rule out a shower or thunderstorms in the east, but much of it seems confined farther south. The potential for strong to severe storms increases on Sunday as a front charges across the area in the afternoon and evening. SPC has already plastered 15% probs for severe over parts of the region, especially the east. The region remains between systems on Monday with increasing southerly winds. Another front with an associated strong upper low moves through the Dakotas on Tuesday. While the main part of the system appears to stay north, that trailing cold front is a concern as a potential focus for convection. The accompanying strong caa looks transient with a quick brush Tuesday night before upper ridging and waa rebound highs back into the 80s on Wednesday. High pressure builds over the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions for all terminals though KATY could see some fog develop through the course of the morning hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Connelly