Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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421 FXUS63 KABR 061746 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will ramp back up today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible in north central SD and east into areas around the Prairie Coteau and west central MN. - There is a 30% chance of light showers and the potential for a few rumbles of thunder Friday night. Otherwise, the next 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Monday night. - Above normal temperatures will return Tuesday-Thursday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1017 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Main issue today is watching wind speeds across the region and how they correspond to the existing Wind Advisory. Already had to add Hamlin/Deuel counties to the advisory based on observations down that way this morning. May also have to add a couple counties along the fringe of the current advisory based on what observations do over the next couple hours. Otherwise, expecting sunny skies today (except for the far northeast - partly cloudy) with highs rising into the 70s to around 80 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 As of 3 AM CDT, skies are clear. Skies are expected to remain clear or mostly clear through Friday. Temperatures around the area this morning are in the high 50s to low 60s with winds out of the west to northwest. Again today we are expecting strong winds in northeast SD. We are still under an upper level trough with a strong pressure gradient and lapse rates are still quite steep. Winds at the top of the mixing layer, depending on the model, are between 35 and 45 knots. Strongest wind gusts (up to 50 mph) are expected around the Prairie Coteau into west central MN today along with Corson county. Winds are expected to diminish around sunset. High pressure moves in at the surface tonight and Friday is expected to have much lighter winds. Temperatures will be around normal with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 today and Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Our next chance (30% chance over eastern SD/west central MN) will be Friday evening. Otherwise, dry weather should continue through the day Monday. This will be as the otherwise steady northwesterly flow at 500mb flattens out a bit as a secondary low sinks across southern Canada for basically the remainder of the long term forecast, and a weak wave pushes across the Central to Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure east of the Rockies will begin organizing with a trough extending up across eastern SD Friday night. MLCAPE values over 200 J/kg looks to stay mainly over our southeastern counties, with the operational GFS being more robust/deeper with the trough. The 00Z Canadian is of similar strength, but about 3 hours slower. So, there is the potential for changes given these differences. At this point, we`ll keep any mention of thunderstorms in the slight chance range. The surface trough will sink to our southeast, with high pressure sinking overhead across SD by 18Z Saturday and a ridge remaining in place through the day Sunday. This will result in cooler air advecting in with 850mb temperatures falling into the single digits late Friday night through much of Saturday. While the 25-75th percentiles for temperatures are within about 6 degrees for highs Saturday, they increase to about 10 degrees for Sunday. The current high temperature forecast (in the 70s) is closer to the 70th percentile/warmer side, and has the potential to be a few degrees different by the time Sunday comes around. The 500mb ridge that`s been residing across the western U.S. will briefly shift overhead Monday before becoming surpressed by the central Canadian low. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) is Monday night, with low pressure over eastern MT/WY at 12Z Monday surging northeast to Manitoba by 06Z Tuesday, and pushing a cold front across our forecast area. Model consensus is for the boundary to be to our southeast by 18Z Tuesday, with precipitation lingering only over our far eastern counties during the daytime hours. A warming trend looks to take hold after Monday with highs mainly in the 80s. A few 90 degree readings from midweek on. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. -SHRA/-TSRA are possible near KPIR Friday morning, so have included a VC (vicinity) mention at this time. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>011-017>023. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TMT