896
FXAK68 PAFC 111323
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Sunday evening)...

The vertically stacked low and surface front that brought the
rain and strong winds to the coast yesterday will continue to move
off to the northeast this morning, ultimately tracking onshore
near Yakutat. With the front now decaying this morning, both winds
and rain are diminishing across Kodiak Island and the Gulf coast.
The showers that fell across parts of interior Southcentral are
also diminishing in coverage and intensity this morning as the
front and associated upper-level wave weaken.

The previous discussion remains, in large part, unchanged...

The bulk of impacts from the upper low will be in the Copper
River Basin late tonight through Friday. A steady supply of short-
waves rotating around the center will move into the eastern Copper
River Basin, bringing widespread wetting rains. For the northern
to western Basin, an axis of instability will stretch from the AK
Range southwestward to the Talkeetna Mountains. Weak upper level
vorticity-maxima will help focus showers, with multiple waves of
showers likely transiting the region during the day Friday.
Stability parameters are marginal for thunderstorms, with surface
heating limited by cloud cover. If thunderstorms do form they will
be mainly isolated in nature and the overall amount of lightning
should be low. A few widely scattered thunderstorms may be
possible along the Denali Highway, however, if there are enough
breaks in the cloud cover ahead of the upper-level wave. Storm
motion could advect a few showers off the Talkeetna Mountains into
the Mat-Su Friday, but expect the bulk of activity to remain over
the mountains.

For the weekend, as the upper low exits to Canada, a ridge in the
Arctic will build southward across mainland AK, briefly cutting
off directly over Southcentral late Saturday then opening back up
and connecting up with a ridge over the northeast Pacific before
shifting eastward late Sunday through Sunday night. The main
message is quiet low impact weather across Southcentral, Kodiak,
and the Gulf this weekend. The thermal trough will become
reestablished over the Interior and dip down into Southcentral -
but stability parameters are not that impressive and storm motion
will be weak. Thus, diurnal convection will be isolated to
scattered in nature and confined primarily to higher terrain.
Skies will start out mostly cloudy across the region Saturday,
and the upper ridge building in could help trap some of this
moisture. Nonetheless, expect at least some sun breaks to develop
by Saturday afternoon, with increasing chances of sunshine late
Saturday and then during the day Sunday. Thus, temperatures will
creep back up into the mid 60s to lower 70s for most of the
region. As the ridge begins to shift eastward a weak trough and
accompanying low level moisture will bring low clouds and some
very light rain to Kodiak Island beginning Saturday night into
Sunday.

-SEB/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

A weak, organized low pressure system in the southwestern Bering
Sea is approaching the western Aleutians, bringing a brief period
of small craft winds and light rain. Currently over the
Southwestern Alaska mainland, a col over the area has led to an
unsettled yet fairly inactive pattern over the area. Afternoon
showers are possible over interior Southwest over the next few
days, becoming increasingly likely by Saturday afternoon and
Sunday afternoon. Areas of highest chances would be the northern
extents of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta. Areas
along the Southwest coast will likely remain in a pattern of on-
again-off-again stratus coverage.

Much of the Aleutians will see periods of fog mixed in with the
more widespread stratus clouds. As the low pressure system in the
western Bering shifts eastward into the weekend, light rain will
similarly spread, reaching Unalaska by Saturday afternoon.
Saturday evening, a broad low pressure system over the Kamchatka
Peninsula will push a front with rain and winds back into the
western Aleutians, continuing the cloudy conditions.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A broad longwave trough extends from the Chukchi Sea to the North
Pacific. Ridging extends from the eastern Gulf into Canadian BC
and Yukon. A weaker ridge extends from the North Pacific into the
southern Bering. Several shortwave bands of precipitation will
stream north into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska through the
day on Monday. As the trough shifts eastward models diverge
greatly on the track of the upper level low at the terminus of the
trough, south of the Alaska Peninsula. The GFS takes the low into
the northern Gulf and inland, the ECMWF takes an easterly track
but remaining south of the Gulf, and the Canadian-NH creates a
cutoff low in the North Pacific south of the Aleutians. Consensus
is better out west, where a surface low from eastern Russia
pushes a front across the Bering Sea Tuesday into Wednesday.
Widespread, light to moderate rain is expected for the Bering Sea
and the western half of Alaska. By Thursday morning the low turns
north across Saint Lawrence Island.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions to persist through the period. Light and
variable winds this morning becoming gusty and southeasterly
this afternoon and evening. Vicinity showers this morning could
move over the terminal, bringing brief periods of light rain.

&&


$$