797
FXAK69 PAFG 231242
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
442 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The West Coast and Western Interior are wet and cool and will
remain so through the weekend. Numerous rain showers will
develop over the Interior Today, but the models are trending for
the highest pops to be over the Eastern Interior and higher
elvations north of Fairbanks. Some of these showers will be heavy
at times and expecting .50 to .75 inches of rainfall over the
Eastern Interior through Friday. The North Slope has near normal
temperatures along with coastal stratus and fog that will
continue into the weekend. Snow expected with several inches
possible over the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night into
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering and
Chukchi Seas, a ridge over the NE Pacific north over eastern
Alaska. A series of short wave troughs will move east across
southern AK from through the weekend, eventually pulling the long
wave east over Mainland AK by the weekend. This will change the
current warm Eastern Interior to cooler and wetter Thu into the
weekend, while the cool and wet West Coast remain so into the
weekend, and the North Slope has little change through Thu then
cools over the weekend.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Numerous rain showers will develop Today, but the models are
trending for the highest pops to be over the Eastern Interior and
higher elvations north of Fairbanks. Some of these showers will be
heavy at times and expecting .50 to .75 inches of rainfall over
the Eastern Interior through Friday. Showers persist into Friday
along with a downtrend in high temps through Friday. A chance of
thunderstorms also possible near the Alcan Border and to Fort
Yukon to Bettles this afternoon. Easterly waves will continue to
move over the southern Interior this weekend and early next week
with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and
Eastern Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool
through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west
coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering.
A slight chance of thunderstorms over the western Interior this
afternoon as well. A short wave in the SW Bering will move over
the SE Bering on Thu, over SW AK on Fri, and into the Gulf of AK
on Sat. This will push a vertically stacked surface low east. A
stronger short wave will move from the High Arctic to near
Utqiagvik Sat night and then drop south over NW AK on Sun and over
SW AK on Mon. This will bring much cooler temps to the West Coast
Sun into Mon. Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering
Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force winds
over the water.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west to Point
Hope Friday into Saturday. A weather system will bring snow to
the Brooks Range Passes Thursday night into Saturday. Expect snow
showers to begin Thursday night and persist through Saturday
morning. Snowfall amounts around 2 to 5 inches with the heaviest
accumulations over the higher elevations of the Dalton Highway.
Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Friday as well
producing blowing snow and low visibility with the snow showers.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers expected on Thursday over the
Eastern Intrior with cooler temps into Fri. Some of these
showers could be heavy at times. Expecting .50 to .75 inches
of rainfall over the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range
through Friday. Scattered to numerous showers possible on Friday
as well. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern
Interior this weekend and early next week with continued wetting
rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Lower Yukon break-up continues as running ice and high water
remain at St Mary`s, Pitkas Point and Mountain Village and a ice
jam flood watch remains for those areas through Thursday. The
break up front is now downstream of Mountain Village and will
likely get to the Yukon Delta at Alakanuk, Emmonak, Nunam Iqua and
Kotlik sometime between late tonight and Fri, bringing the risk
of ice jam flooding to those areas tonight through Fri. Flood
watches are out for all these areas.

The water levels along the Porcupine River at the Border rose to
record levels over the weekend due to heavy snowmelt. This high
water is expected to reach Ft Yukon on Wed, where it will
gradually fills sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon and eventually
bring high water into Ft Yukon late this week with high water
continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid front this Wed
through next week Wed.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$