074
FXAK69 PAFG 022109
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
109 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A bit of an active day today with plenty going on, let`s get into
it. Starting with the overall pattern, we have a convergence zone
which is clearly visible on satellite. It extends from the NE
Arctic Coast through the Central Brooks Range to SW AK. Convection
has already begun to initiate and widely scattered thunderstorms
will follow this afternoon from Coldfoot to McGrath as surface
temperatures increase and helps break a cap aloft. In the NE
Arctic, there is a chance for thunderstorms southeast of Atigun
Pass towards Arctic Village. We will also be monitoring this area
for mixed precipitation tonight and tomorrow. In FNSB, there is a
chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly after 3 PM. The
Eastern Interior southeast of Fort Yukon remains mostly dry today.
Looking out west, a cooling trend continues for most coastal
locations with gusty winds from Kivalina southward. The Western
Interior will have a chance for showers and storms, though most
remain east of Nulato.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Models have initialized very well with an arctic low in the
Beaufort Sea dropping into the Chukchi and over the Seward
Peninsula by tomorrow afternoon. An area of upper level divergence
is located from the NE Arctic to SW AK. There is a weakening area
of ridging from Fort Yukon northward to Kaktovik which will
diminish through the day. Otherwise, a persistent area of low
pressure remains in the Gulf of Alaska which has provided several
easterly waves in the Interior and will continue to do so through
the week.

Surface Analysis...
A stalled convergence boundary is stationed from the NE Arctic to
SW AK with ongoing rain showers and areas of snow north of the
Brooks Range. The SE Interior will remain dry this afternoon with
partly to mostly sunny skies. Around Fairbanks, partly to mostly
sunny skies will transition to stormier looking skies this
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop east of Fairbanks
and move over the area after 3 PM. Over the West Coast, stratus
will remain dominant over the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence
Island while the remainder of the area has mixed clouds and sun
with breezy and chilly conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
South and west of Nuiqsut remains mostly dry today, then light
snow develops over the Arctic Plain tonight which traverses north
to Utqiagvik by tomorrow afternoon. The kitchen sink will be
thrown at the Central/Eastern North Slope and Brooks Range over
the next few days. A convergence zone brings areas of light snow
today which may turn briefly heavy this evening east of Anaktuvuk
Pass. This snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain from
Anaktuvuk Pass north/east to the coast. Ice accumulations are
looking more likely to occur after midnight through 10 AM
tomorrow morning. By 10 AM tomorrow, ice accumulations may be
around a trace from Nuiqsut east, with a few hundredths in
Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes. Temperatures will rise above freezing
for most of this area during the afternoon. Areas of drizzle may
continue at times during the afternoon, and this has the chance to
transition to freezing drizzle tomorrow night along the Dalton
Highway. Most of the precipitation will end during the day on
Tuesday as a warming trend continues.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Southeast of Circle remains dry today with highs ranging from the
60s in the Tanana Valley to low 70s in Circle and Eagle. Showers
and thunderstorms have developed over the White Mountains and
around the Chena Recreation Area. These will maneuver west
throughout the afternoon and evening with storms possible in
Fairbanks after 3 PM. North and West of FNSB is where the bulk of
the action will be situated. Numerous showers with widely
scattered thunderstorms will be stationed from Bettles southwest
to Tanana and McGrath. These storms may be accompanied with gusty
winds up to 40 mph, heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall totals may
be as much as 0.50 inches in the heaviest/most persistent rain.
Otherwise, easterly flow with rain and storms looks to continue
through much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Most of the area remains dry today, but showers and storms will be
around today from McGrath northeast with heavy rain possible. A
few showers will be possible this evening from Galena east, but
nothing too impactful. Otherwise along the coast, wind gradually
weakens in the Bering Strait but increases along the rest of the
coast with gusts from 25-35 mph expected this afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with highs near 50 in the
YK Delta and mid to upper 60s inland. Wind will remain nearly the
same through tomorrow afternoon then strengthen overnight along
the Bering Strait Coast with gusts to 55 mph possible in Diomede
and Wales through Tuesday night. Wind then weakens everywhere
except from Kivalina to St. Lawrence Island where gale force gusts
continue through Wednesday. A cooling trend will persist tomorrow
with highs along the coast in the 30s. Isolated snow showers may
develop in the Bering Strait Monday night, but not accumulations
are expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler and wetter conditions are expected the next few days with
only a few spots in the Yukon Flats reaching the mid 70s for
highs. Thunderstorms will be the main story of the forecast as
shortwave trough after shortwave trough make their way in from the
east over the next few days. This pattern will remain quite
persistent through at least Wednesday. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected today from Nikolai to Manley Hot
Springs to Coldfoot and east across the White Mountains and Yukon
Flats. Monday, expect widely scattered thunderstorms from Tanana
to Arctic Village during the afternoon, then transition to Fort
Yukon and the Fortymile during the evening with isolated storms
elsewhere. Tuesday comes with isolated storms for most of the
Interior and we are currently favoring north and east of Fairbanks
in the terrain, to the Yukon Flats for widely scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco